Bunbury Race 6 - Tabtouch Scan My Bet Handicap (C1)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURE SILVER (11) represents outstanding value in this race despite recent below-par performances. The 3yo filly is significantly better than her recent form suggests and drops dramatically in class from Listed/Group company to C1 level. UNIVERSAL HOTNESS (4) offers the main speed threat from an ideal barrier draw and has strong local track knowledge, while LA EXCELLENCE (1) could surprise at odds after breaking through for a maiden win last start.

RACE OVERVIEW

Distance: 1400m
Track Conditions: Good 4
Weather: Fine, 28°C
Rail Position: +3m (favoring on-pace runners)
Prize Money: $30,000
Field Quality: Competitive C1 handicap with several last-start winners

This is a solid C1 handicap contested by horses with mixed recent form. The rail position favors on-pace runners, and the 1400m trip should suit most runners. Track bias analysis suggests leaders and horses settling in the first four positions hold distinct advantages.

FORM ANALYSIS

Top Contenders

PURE SILVER (11) - TOP SELECTION

Trainer: Ryan Hill | Jockey: Victoria Corver | Weight: 56kg

Key Factors:

• Class Relief: Drops dramatically from Listed/Group company to C1 level
• Distance Suit: 1400m is optimal trip (1/4 record at distance)
• Track Knowledge: 1-0-1 from 4 starts at Bunbury
• Weight Advantage: Gets in with 56kg, significant relief from recent campaigns

Recent Form Assessment:

• Last start (3/1/26): 5th in 3yo race at Pinjarra, beaten 4.3L - ran on from back
• Previous (29/11/25): 10th in LR Lee-Steere Stakes at Ascot behind Hot And High
• Form cycle: Won maiden at Bunbury (4/11/25) by 2.6L at $2.00

Professional Analysis: This filly is significantly better than recent results indicate. The Lee-Steere Stakes was Group/Listed company against much stronger opposition. Her maiden win at this track was authoritative, and the class drop here is substantial. Form readers focusing on recent poor runs are missing the bigger picture.

UNIVERSAL HOTNESS (4) - PACE THREAT

Trainer: Tim Crosby | Jockey: Austin Galati | Weight: 59kg

Key Factors:

• Track Specialist: 1-3-4 record from 11 starts at Bunbury
• Distance Expertise: 1-3-3 from 11 attempts at 1400m
• Barrier Advantage: Drawn barrier 2 with rail +3m favoring inside runners
• Consistent Placer: 55.56% place strike rate over career

Recent Form Assessment:

• Last start (28/12/25): 3rd at this track over 1400m, beaten 2.8L in similar grade
• Previous (18/12/25): 5th at this track, led early then tired
• Pattern: Typically leads or sits handy, needs to be run down

Professional Analysis: Local track specialist who maps perfectly from barrier 2. Has excellent course and distance statistics. The worry is his recent tendency to tire in the straight when leading, but the low draw is a significant advantage on this track configuration.

LA EXCELLENCE (1) - VALUE CHANCE

Trainer: Clifford Green | Jockey: Patrick Carbery | Weight: 60kg

Key Factors:

• Last Start Winner: Broke maiden at Pinjarra (30/11/25) by 0.6L at $4.60
• Class Improvement: Step up from maiden to C1 level
• Jockey Continuity: Patrick Carbery retains the ride
• Back-to-Back Pattern: Often improves second-up after breakthrough

Recent Form Assessment:

• Last start (1/1/26): 10th at Ascot in Graduation Handicap, outclassed
• Previous (30/11/25): Maiden win at Pinjarra, strong staying effort

Professional Analysis: The maiden win was impressive but the Graduation Handicap run was poor. However, that was against much stronger opposition. Back to more suitable grade here and could improve sharply.

Others to Consider

ANTZ PANTZ BABY (6)

Second-up after 13-month spell. Won trial before return and blinkers applied. Should improve but may need another run.

MANTA RAY BAY (8)

Third-up and has found form with recent win at Narrogin. Drops back in grade and gets Natika Riordan.

PACE ANALYSIS & RACE SHAPE

Likely Pace: Moderate to Fast

Speed Map:

• Leaders: Universal Hotness (4), potentially La Excellence (1)
• Pace: Pure Silver (11) likely to settle midfield from wide draw
• Backmarkers: Milly’s Clever Too (9), O’so Demanding (10)

Race Development: Universal Hotness should lead from the ideal draw with La Excellence likely to race handy. The moderate pace should suit Pure Silver coming from midfield, while the rail +3m configuration favors the early pace. Backmarkers will need significant pace pressure to be effective.

TRACK & CONDITIONS ANALYSIS

Bunbury Track Characteristics:

• Configuration: Turning track with 345m straight
• Rail Position: +3m favors on-pace runners and inside barriers
• Track Condition: Good 4 - ideal racing conditions
• Distance Profile: 1400m suits on-pace types with the turning configuration

Track Bias: The +3m rail position historically favors horses settling in the first four positions. Barrier 2 (Universal Hotness) is particularly advantageous, while wide barriers face additional pressure to find cover.

MARKET ANALYSIS & VALUE PLAYS

Current Market Assessment:

• Pure Silver: $3.00 - OUTSTANDING VALUE given class drop
• Universal Hotness: $11.00 - Fair odds for local specialist
• La Excellence: $41.00 - Speculative value given last start win

Market Intelligence: Based on Ladbrokes preview, Pure Silver is being treated harshly by the market despite significant class relief. The market appears to be over-reacting to recent poor form without considering the substantial class drop.

Value Analysis:

• Pure Silver at $3.00+ represents genuine each-way value
• Universal Hotness is appropriately priced for his local record
• Trifecta/Exotic Opportunities: 11-4-1 combinations offer strong value

BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS

Win Betting

Pure Silver (11) - 2 units at $3.00 or better

• Reasoning: Massive class drop from Group/Listed to C1 level
• Stop Loss: Reduce stake if odds drop below $2.50

Place Betting

Pure Silver (11) - 3 units for place Universal Hotness (4) - 1 unit for place

Exotic Betting

Trifecta: 11/4,1,8/4,1,8,6 (1 unit) Quinella: 11-4 (1 unit)

Total Outlay: 8 units

Expected Return: Positive EV based on assessed probabilities

RISK FACTORS & WATCH POINTS

Key Uncertainties

1. Pure Silver’s Mindset: Recent poor runs may have affected confidence
2. Track Bias Strength: If rail advantage is extreme, wide barriers severely disadvantaged
3. Pace Scenario: If no genuine speed, leaders could prove hard to run down
4. Weather Impact: Any track deterioration would favor different running styles

Pre-Race Observations

• Market Movements: Monitor for any significant support for Pure Silver
• Barrier Manners: Watch Pure Silver’s jump from wide barrier
• Track Conditions: Confirm Good 4 rating maintains

Scratching Contingencies

If Universal Hotness scratches, increase stakes on Pure Silver and consider La Excellence each-way.

FINAL SUMMARY

This race presents an outstanding betting opportunity with PURE SILVER significantly overpriced due to market focus on recent poor form in superior company. The class drop to C1 level cannot be overstated - this filly has competed in Stakes company and should handle this opposition comfortably if returning to peak form.

UNIVERSAL HOTNESS provides the main speed threat from an ideal draw and has proven local track credentials, while LA EXCELLENCE offers speculative value after breaking his maiden last start.

The rail configuration favors on-pace types, making barrier draws crucial. Pure Silver faces a challenge from the wide draw but has the class edge to overcome it.

Confidence Rating: High for the win selection based on significant class advantages and market overlay.