Ascot Race 6 - Bisley Workwear (1200m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 4:25 PM | BM66+ | 10 runners | Soft 5
VERDICT
Moderate tempo expected with Supernatural and Hey Pino likely to press forward from barriers 8 and 1 respectively. On-pace runners advantaged on the soft track. Competitive BM66 sprint with no standout value in the win market - favourites Supernatural and Fancy Red are short of the 25% probability threshold and showing as underlays. Place specialists offer marginal EW value at double-figure odds.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - No runner meets the 25% win probability threshold. Supernatural (22%) is the highest-rated but comes off a feature win that has shortened the price to underlay territory (-23% edge). Fancy Red (20%) has brilliant form figures but faces a wide barrier (9) on a soft track and lacks Ascot form.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#8 HEY PINO - E/W @ $12.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 8% |
| Place Probability | 26% |
| Place Odds | $3.75 (1/4) |
| Specialist Score | 3.59 |
| Career Place Rate | 69% (9/13) |
| Stake | 1.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Outstanding place specialist with 69% career place rate (9 placings from 13 starts). Barrier 1 is a significant advantage on a soft track at 1200m - can settle handy without cover and save ground throughout. Trainer Raquel Williams in good form.
#6 CANNY ROCK - E/W @ $12.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 8% |
| Place Probability | 25% |
| Place Odds | $3.75 (1/4) |
| Specialist Score | 3.18 |
| Career Place Rate | 61% (17/28) |
| Stake | 1.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Proven place specialist with 8 seconds and 6 thirds from 28 starts - career place rate of 61%. Strong Ascot record (2-3-2 from 12 starts). Barrier 5 suits to settle midfield with cover.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supernatural | 8 | $3.50 | 22% | 59% | -23% | B | Won Fitzpatrick Plate last start by 1L as $2.45 fav. Top weight 59.5kg, wide barrier concerns |
| 3 | Fancy Red | 9 | $4.00 | 20% | 57% | -20% | B | Brilliant 90% place rate (9/10). W Pike rides. Wide barrier, no Ascot form |
| 4 | Snow Prince | 7 | $8.00 | 12% | 33% | -4% | B | Solid Ascot record (4-0-5 from 18). Consistent without winning |
| 5 | Asif | 10 | $9.00 | 10% | 29% | -10% | C | Most experienced (44 starts). Won last but widest barrier |
| 6 | Canny Rock | 5 | $12.00 | 8% | 25% | -4% | B | Strong placer (8 seconds career). Good barrier |
| 7 | Nobellity | 6 | $10.00 | 10% | 27% | 0% | C | Won last, 24 Ascot starts (5-1-2). Fair each-way |
| 8 | Hey Pino | 1 | $12.00 | 8% | 26% | -4% | B | Best barrier, 69% career place rate |
| 2 | Sonoftheboss | 4 | $15.00 | 6% | 20% | -10% | C | 30 starts (5-4-7). Placegetter type, good barrier |
| 9 | Wicked Venom | 2 | $21.00 | 5% | 16% | -5% | X | Poor recent form (5-3-11-5-10) |
| 10 | Civvy Street | 3 | $26.00 | 4% | 13% | -4% | X | Inconsistent form (6-2-4-8-12) |
KEY RISKS
- Soft track uncertainty - Several runners untested on Soft 5 conditions; track may deteriorate further
- Wide barriers for favourites - Supernatural (8) and Fancy Red (9) drawn wide and may need to do extra work early
Sources: form-guide.com.au, Albany Advertiser, Perth Racing, bets.com.au