Ascot Race 9 - Peters Investments (1000m)
| **Saturday 17 January 2026 | 9:30 AM | Rs1mw | 13 runners | Soft 5** |
VERDICT
Fast tempo expected with multiple speed horses (Niccimota, Avoidance) contesting the lead in this 1000m sprint. Wide barriers are a concern on the tight Ascot circuit. No standout value for Best Bet designation but two runners offer each-way appeal at odds.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - No runner meets the 25% win probability threshold. This is a competitive sprint with 13 runners and no clear market leader showing +15% edge.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#5 NICCIMOTA - E/W @ $7.00+ [EW VALUE - Path A]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 16% |
| Place Probability | 40% |
| Place Odds | $2.50 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +6% |
| Specialist Score | 1.91 (Strong) |
| Stake | 1.5 units E/W |
Why EW: Strong place specialist (64% career placing rate vs 34% expected). Has natural speed to roll forward from barrier 9. Form reads 3-1-3-1-1 showing consistent placings. Jim Taylor mare suited to this sharp sprint.
#3 LOST GRAVITY - E/W @ $8.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 14% |
| Place Probability | 34% |
| Place Odds | $2.75 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +2% |
| Specialist Score | 1.47 (Specialist) |
| Stake | 1.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Place specialist with 43% career placing rate. Recent winner (form 1-4-6-3-2). Good barrier 5 allows midfield position to stalk the speed. Misty Bazeley mare has placed 13 times from 30 starts.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avoidance | 1 | $6.00 | 15% | 32% | -4% | B | Inside draw, speed, 8 wins from 32 |
| 2 | Santanova | 8 | $10.00 | 10% | 27% | 0% | C | Pike ride but wide draw, inconsistent |
| 3 | Lost Gravity | 5 | $8.00 | 14% | 34% | +2% | B | EW VALUE - Place specialist |
| 4 | Earth God | 4 | $8.00 | 12% | 29% | -4% | C | Trialled well, query on sprint |
| 5 | Niccimota | 9 | $7.00 | 16% | 40% | +6% | B | EW VALUE - Speed, place record |
| 6 | Twisted Steel | 10 | $5.50 | 18% | 44% | -10% | B | Fresh, good form but wide, short |
| 7 | Art Of Sabrage | 13 | $21.00 | 5% | 15% | +5% | X | Wide barrier, form down |
| 8 | Justabittapress | 7 | $11.00 | 9% | 24% | -1% | C | Close-up last start, each-way query |
| 9 | On The Full | 11 | $17.00 | 6% | 18% | +2% | X | Wide draw, inconsistent |
| 10 | Run Pattie Run | 6 | $15.00 | 7% | 21% | +5% | C | Recent winner, up in class |
| 11 | Who’s Bent | 12 | $26.00 | 4% | 12% | +4% | X | Wide, limited form |
| 12 | Rise To Glory | 3 | $17.00 | 6% | 17% | +2% | X | Good draw, needs improvement |
| 13 | Anaballistic | 2 | $13.00 | 8% | 22% | +4% | C | Inside draw, inconsistent |
KEY RISKS
- Wide barriers - Both EW selections drawn wide (barrier 9 and 5). On the tight Ascot circuit (300m straight) this can be costly if not forward early.
- Soft 5 track - Some runners may not handle the give in the ground at sprint pace.
Sources: form-guide.com.au, betfair.com.au/hub, bets.com.au, ozrace.com.au