Flemington Race 4 - Black Caviar Lightning Race Day (1800m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 1:58 PM AEDT | BM70 | 15 runners | Good 4
VERDICT
Moderate tempo expected with likely single leader. Barrier draws critical on the 1800m trip - inside runners advantaged. Yes I Know heavily backed by experts (100% consensus) but represents marginal value only at current odds. Look to longer-priced place specialists for each-way value.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - Top contender Yes I Know meets 5 of 6 criteria but edge (+8%) falls short of +15% threshold. Despite 100% expert support and strong form, current odds of $2.70 don’t offer sufficient value for Best Bet designation.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#4 DARTBOARD - E/W @ $8.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 12% |
| Place Probability | 35% |
| Place Odds | $2.75 (1/4) |
| Specialist Score | 2.26 |
| Stake | 1.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Strong place specialist (score 2.26) with inside barrier 3 advantage on 1800m trip. Form figures 1932141x93 show consistent placing ability. John Allen a reliable jockey, and barrier draw gives a tactical edge over wide runners.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chakado | 8 | $6.00 | 12% | 30% | -8% | B | Mid-draw, decent form, needs luck |
| 2 | Fiorenot | 13 | $5.00 | 18% | 44% | -10% | B | Wide barrier handicap, top weight 61kg |
| 3 | All So Clear | 15 | $12.00 | 7% | 22% | -16% | C | Widest draw fatal |
| 4 | Dartboard | 3 | $8.00 | 12% | 35% | -4% | B | EW VALUE - Inside draw, place specialist |
| 5 | Rainbow Delight | 12 | $15.00 | 5% | 18% | -25% | X | Wide draw, inconsistent |
| 6 | Dark Simba | 7 | $7.00 | 10% | 26% | -30% | C | Better on wet, not ideal today |
| 7 | Russian Meteor | 4 | $18.00 | 4% | 15% | -28% | X | Outclassed |
| 8 | Ambassadorial | 9 | $8.50 | 8% | 21% | -32% | C | Inconsistent form |
| 9 | Frontline Action | 1 | $10.00 | 8% | 29% | -20% | B | Rail draw helps, place hope |
| 10 | Roguery | 5 | $14.00 | 6% | 20% | -16% | C | Needs to improve |
| 11 | Bavicia | 10 | $26.00 | 3% | 12% | -22% | X | Outclassed |
| 12 | Corona Lad | 14 | $20.00 | 4% | 14% | -20% | X | Wide draw, limited |
| 13 | Thinking Gold | 6 | $12.00 | 7% | 22% | -16% | C | Some ability, query consistency |
| 14 | Yes I Know | 2 | $2.70 | 40% | 85% | +8% | A | Expert pick, marginal value only |
| 15 | Figlio D’Argento | 11 | $16.00 | 5% | 17% | -20% | X | Wide draw, outclassed |
KEY RISKS
- Yes I Know: Despite expert consensus, the $2.70 price offers thin value. Any mishap from barrier 2 or failure to handle blinkers leaves little margin.
- Dartboard EW: Needs moderate tempo to get into position from barrier 3. If pace collapses, may get caught flat-footed.
Sources: form-guide.com.au, Racing Australia, AusSportsBetting, BeforeYouBet, RSN/Gately, Kruzey