Flemington Race 9 - Thank You Volunteers Trophy (1400m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 4:58 PM | BM84 | 13 runners | Good 4
VERDICT
Moderate tempo expected with Recon likely to lead unchallenged. Mid-field runners with strong finishes advantaged on the wide rail. Zouper Fund offers strong each-way value at $6 with exceptional form, though the wide barrier (13) prevents Best Bet status. Consider Ndola as a place specialist at value odds.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - Top contender Zouper Fund fails to meet the 25% win probability threshold (22%) and carries a red flag (barrier 13 in a 13-horse field). While the edge is strong (+32%), the combination of factors prevents qualification.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#8 ZOUPER FUND - E/W @ $6.00+ [EW VALUE - Path A]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 22% |
| Place Probability | 55% |
| Place Odds | $2.25 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +28% |
| Specialist Score | 1.89 |
| Stake | 2.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Third-up after back-to-back wins, placed in 7 of 8 career starts (87.5%). The Ciaron Maher gelding has been outstanding this campaign, and Jye McNeil is in career-best form. Path A qualified: $6+ odds, +28% EW EV, 55% place probability.
Key Risk: Wide barrier (13) at Flemington requires a patient ride and favourable pace.
#1 NDOLA - E/W @ $9.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 12% |
| Place Probability | 32% |
| Place Odds | $3.00 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +2% |
| Specialist Score | 2.83 |
| Stake | 1.0 units E/W |
Why EW: Consistent performer with 10 placings from 14 starts (71%). Won last start and the Hayes team have this gelding in excellent condition. Path B qualified: $9+ odds, specialist score 2.83 (strong place specialist).
Key Risk: Rising to BM84 for the first time, barrier 10 requires navigation.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ndola | 10 | $9.00 | 12% | 32% | +8% | B | Consistent placer, won last, class rise |
| 2 | Saganti | 1 | $15.00 | 8% | 24% | +20% | C | First-up 9 months, risky resumption |
| 3 | Golden Monkey | 12 | $21.00 | 6% | 19% | +26% | C | Inconsistent, wide draw, past best |
| 4 | Indispensable | 4 | $26.00 | 5% | 16% | +30% | X | Form declining, 64 starts |
| 5 | Modown | 8 | $21.00 | 6% | 18% | +26% | C | Resuming, trialled okay |
| 6 | Recon | 11 | $7.00 | 15% | 38% | +5% | B | 5 wins/8 starts, likely leader |
| 7 | My Brothers Keeper | 9 | $17.00 | 7% | 19% | +19% | C | Resuming, trial winner, needs luck |
| 8 | Zouper Fund | 13 | $6.00 | 22% | 55% | +32% | A | Third-up, back-to-back wins, wide barrier |
| 9 | Prancing Spirit | 3 | $15.00 | 6% | 19% | +10% | C | Third-up, honest but limited |
| 10 | Until Valhalla | 6 | $17.00 | 8% | 21% | +36% | C | Second-up, fitter, needs pace |
| 11 | Codigo | 2 | $13.00 | 7% | 20% | +9% | C | Consistent, good barrier |
| 13 | Supernima | 7 | $21.00 | 6% | 19% | +26% | C | Each-way chance, limited |
| 14 | Botanical Boy | 5 | $4.50 | 20% | 49% | -10% | B | Hat-trick bid, UNDERLAY at $4.50 |
KEY RISKS
- Zouper Fund’s barrier (13) - Wide draw requires tactical ride; if pace collapses, may be stranded wide without cover
- Botanical Boy market support - Market has this horse too short at $4.50 (fair odds $5.00), but if it wins from a hat-trick position, value plays finish behind
EXPERT CONSENSUS
| Selection | Expert Support |
|---|---|
| Zouper Fund | 50% (Best Bet - AusSportsBetting) |
| Botanical Boy | 38% (Strong Bet - AusSportsBetting) |
| Recon | 25% |
| Ndola | 25% |
Sources: AusSportsBetting, form-guide.com.au