Rosehill Race 6 - Thank You Noel Cuthbert (1500m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 3:30 PM | BM78 F&M | 10 runners | Soft 5
VERDICT
Moderate tempo expected with Alabama Fox likely to roll forward from barrier 9. On-pace runners advantaged on the soft track with inside barriers (1-6) historically dominant at Rosehill. Open race with no standout - the favourite Alabama Fox is short of Best Bet criteria and the value lies in the place market.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - No runner meets qualification criteria. Alabama Fox (22% win prob) falls short of the 25% threshold, has negative edge at likely odds ($4.50), lacks sufficient expert support (40%), and carries the red flag of wide barrier in a soft-track race where inside draws dominate.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#7 CHANGING COLOURS - E/W @ $9.00+ [EW VALUE - Path A]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 12% |
| Place Probability | 36.5% |
| Place Odds | $3.00 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +8.7% |
| Specialist Score | 2.67 (Strong) |
| Stake | 1.5 units E/W |
Why EW: Outstanding place consistency (10 placings from 13 starts = 77%) makes her a strong place specialist. Second at this track over 1300m last start when charging home. The step to 1500m suits - she won over 1400m here in June. Nash Rawiller booking is a positive. Qualifies via Path A (odds >= $6, EW EV >= 5%, place prob >= 30%) AND Path B (odds >= $8, specialist score >= 1.3).
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Miss Hades | 5 | $7.00 | 15% | 41.5% | +5% | B | Two Dec wins but flopped 8th in G1 last start; needs to bounce |
| 7 | Changing Colours | 7 | $9.00 | 12% | 36.5% | +8% | B | EW VALUE - Strong placer, 2nd here last start, Rawiller up |
| 1 | Island Dream | 1 | $11.00 | 10% | 29% | +10% | B | Inside draw helps; beaten by Alabama Fox last start |
| 9 | Alabama Fox | 9 | $4.50 | 22% | 60% | -1% | A | Last start winner but short odds, wide draw on soft track |
| 3 | Editing | 3 | $15.00 | 6% | 20% | +8% | C | Ciaron Maher runner; unproven at this level |
| 8 | Vienna Vixen | 8 | $13.00 | 8% | 24% | +4% | C | Experienced but 5 wins from 31 starts; place chance |
| 2 | Aroha Stone | 2 | $12.00 | 8% | 25% | +4% | C | Won 2 back at Canterbury; likes soft ground |
| 10 | Hurry Miss | 10 | $14.00 | 7% | 24% | +5% | C | Strong placer (7/10); wide draw concern |
| 4 | Callistemon | 4 | $17.00 | 5% | 16% | +6% | C | 11 placings from 26 starts; consistent minor money |
| 6 | Ulysses Blue | 6 | $21.00 | 4% | 12% | +5% | X | Light weight but poor form; eliminate |
KEY RISKS
- Soft track bias: If inside runners dominate, Changing Colours (barrier 7) may be disadvantaged
- Alabama Fox bounce: If the favourite finds her best, she has the class to win easily despite the wide draw
Sources: form-guide.com.au, Breednet, Bendigo Advertiser, The Sporting Base, Just Horse Racing