Rosehill Race 7 - Ranvet Handicap (2400m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 4:05 PM | BM78 | 15 runners | Soft 5
VERDICT
Moderate tempo expected with multiple runners likely to settle midfield. Rail in true position favours on-pace types who can sustain a run. Open staying contest with no standout but genuine each-way value available at odds.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - No runner meets the 25% win probability threshold. Wide-open staying contest with the market favourite (est. $5.00) showing -30% edge. Insufficient confidence for Best Bet designation.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#10 KUREDER (NZ) - E/W @ $26.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 8% |
| Place Probability | 22% |
| Place Odds | $7.25 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +83% |
| Specialist Score | 2.98 |
| Stake | 1.5 units E/W |
Why EW: Strong place specialist (score 2.98) with proven 2400m record. Runner-up in two of last three Sydney runs at this trip in this grade, both times carrying 4.5kg more. Significant weight drop with 3kg claimer Siena Grima. Returns from Brisbane runs over shorter trips - now gets ideal distance. Chris Waller-trained roughie highlighted by multiple tipsters.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamarkand (FR) | 5 | $5.00 | 14% | 35% | -30% | B | Topweight, 2kg claim, step up suits |
| 2 | Tazaral (IRE) | 6 | $6.50 | 12% | 29% | -22% | B | Lightly raced import, upside |
| 3 | Going Remote (IRE) | 3 | $8.00 | 8% | 21% | -20% | C | Good barrier, Irish import |
| 4 | Rattle And Hum (IRE) | 4 | $9.00 | 7% | 19% | -19% | C | Inside draw, 2kg claim |
| 5 | Forbidden Riff | 10 | $8.00 | 10% | 25% | -20% | B | Strong stable, wide draw concern |
| 6 | Bella Montagna (NZ) | 14 | $12.00 | 7% | 19% | -4% | C | Waterhouse/Bott stayer, wide gate |
| 7 | Bestower (NZ) | 12 | $15.00 | 6% | 17% | +10% | C | Kris Lees, wide barrier |
| 8 | Lennox (IRE) | 9 | $14.00 | 6% | 17% | +6% | C | Archibald second string |
| 9 | Casino Bear | 11 | $21.00 | 4% | 14% | +16% | C | 3kg claim |
| 10 | Kureder (NZ) | 8 | $26.00 | 8% | 22% | +108% | B | EW VALUE - Place specialist |
| 11 | Placid Pearl | 1 | $9.00 | 9% | 25% | -19% | B | Barrier 1 excellent, stayer |
| 12 | Ant | 7 | $17.00 | 5% | 15% | +36% | C | Waller, good gate |
| 13 | War Ribbon | 15 | $41.00 | 3% | 10% | +23% | X | Wide barrier, lightweight |
| 14 | Mr Fabulous | 2 | $21.00 | 4% | 13% | +16% | C | TBA jockey, barrier 2 |
| 15 | Southerly Buster (NZ) | 13 | $31.00 | 3% | 11% | +7% | X | 3kg claim, wide gate |
KEY RISKS
- Wide-open race: No dominant favourite - result highly unpredictable
- Soft track variable: Heavy track specialists may emerge if conditions deteriorate further
Sources: form-guide.com.au, Racing NSW, Just Horse Racing, The Sporting Base