Rosehill Race 9 - Asahi Super Dry (1100m)
Saturday 17 January 2026 | 6:30 PM | BM78 | 11 runners | Soft 5
VERDICT
Fast tempo expected with multiple speed horses engaged (Eye Of The Fire, Bev’s Nine, Tai Lung). On-pacers at disadvantage on soft track; horses with tactical speed who can settle midfield and sprint likely advantaged. Bev’s Nine will be significantly overbacked given unbeaten record - value lies against the favorite in the each-way market.
BEST BET
NO BEST BET - No runner meets qualification criteria. Bev’s Nine (22% true probability) is the likely favorite but will be significantly underpriced at ~$2.80 based on unbeaten 3/3 record, creating -38% underlay. First metro Saturday test represents class rise risk. No other runner achieves 25% win probability threshold.
EACH-WAY VALUE
#1 EYE OF THE FIRE - E/W @ $8.00+ [EW VALUE - Path A]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 14% |
| Place Probability | 39% |
| Place Odds | $2.75 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +9.8% |
| Specialist Score | 1.64 |
| Stake | 1.5 units E/W |
Why EW: Proven performer with 5 wins and 11 placings from 20 starts (55% place rate). Last start winner, 13 days fresh. Barrier 3 ideal at Rosehill on soft. Trainer Archibald consistent at metro level. Qualifies Path A (odds >= $6, EW EV >= +5%, place prob >= 30%) and Path B (place specialist).
#3 POWER OF THE BRAVE - E/W @ $12.00+ [EW VALUE - Path B]
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win Probability | 10% |
| Place Probability | 29% |
| Place Odds | $3.75 (1/4) |
| EW Total EV | +14.4% |
| Specialist Score | 2.08 |
| Stake | 1.5 units E/W |
Why EW: Elite place specialist with 50% career place rate (14 placings from 28 starts). Won last start, Kris Lees stable in strong form. Brave Smash progeny handle soft tracks. Wide barrier (10) a concern but price compensates. Strong place specialist score (2.08) indicates consistent place ability regardless of win chances.
FULL FIELD
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Grade | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eye Of The Fire | 3 | $8.00 | 14% | 39% | +12% | B | Last start winner, 55% place rate, EW VALUE |
| 2 | Wondereach | 5 | $9.00 | 12% | 34% | +8% | B | Track/distance winner, 54% place rate, marginal |
| 3 | Power Of The Brave | 10 | $12.00 | 10% | 29% | +20% | B | Elite placer, 50% career, EW VALUE |
| 4 | Wallenda | 2 | $15.00 | 7% | 22% | +6% | C | Good barrier, patchy form |
| 5 | Bev’s Nine | 4 | $2.80 | 22% | 63% | -38% | A | Perfect 3/3 but massive underlay, AVOID |
| 6 | Tarpaulin | 9 | $21.00 | 5% | 15% | - | X | 62 days off, first-up query |
| 7 | Art’s Alive | 6 | $18.00 | 6% | 18% | +5% | C | Blinkers on, mid-table |
| 8 | Inoue | 11 | $14.00 | 8% | 23% | +12% | C | Wide draw, Snowden stable |
| 9 | Massira | 7 | $16.00 | 6% | 20% | +6% | C | Country form, class test |
| 10 | Exfortythree | 1 | $11.00 | 9% | 26% | +10% | C | Unknown - 1 start debut winner |
| 11 | Tai Lung | 8 | $15.00 | 8% | 23% | +20% | C | Fresh off win, 39% place rate |
KEY RISKS
- Soft track specialist uncertainty: Track rated Soft 5; horses without proven soft track form may underperform regardless of class
- Fast pace burn: Multiple early speed horses could set hot tempo, benefiting closers over on-pace runners
Sources: form-guide.com.au, johnoshea.com.au, racingzone.com.au, primethoroughbreds.com.au, beforeyoubet.com.au