Canterbury R6 | 1900m BM79
Thu 23 Jan | 8:30pm | 10r | Soft 6 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #2 OAKFIELD HAWK @ $17 - 1.5u EW EW VALUE: #9 SCARLI JAPALI @ $9 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Allegro Miss | $2.40 | 50.2 | 35% | -16% | VALUE | - |
| 3 | Assailant | $3.50 | 38.0 | 22% | -23% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Scarli Japali | $9.00 | 42.0 | 11% | +0.5% | EW_VALUE | 1.0u |
| 2 | Oakfield Hawk | $17.00 | 80.0 | 7% | +22% | EW_VALUE | 1.5u |
| 4 | Subarctic | $10.00 | 35.0 | 8% | -20% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Humanity | $11.00 | 32.0 | 7% | -23% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Allegro Miss posted best recent figure (1900m Canterbury win in 116.61s). Scarli Japali only 0.65s slower winning same C/D.
Pace: MODERATE expected with no dominant leader. Suits on-pace/midfield runners. Wide barriers disadvantaged.
Class: Rising from BM64 for Allegro Miss/Scarli Japali - both won last at lower level. Oakfield Hawk drops from BM78.
Bias: Soft 6 track - wet track specialists key. Oakfield Hawk (2w 3p from 4 Heavy) and Scarli Japali (4w 6p from 8 Soft) standout.
SELECTION RATIONALE
OAKFIELD HAWK (#2) qualifies via ALL THREE EW paths: +22% EW EV (Path A), 1.50 specialist score (Path B), and 25% place EV at $17 (Path C). Heavy/soft specialist with 2 wins from 4 heavy track starts. The Kris Lees-trained stayer won over 2300m at Newcastle and has distance credentials. Wide draw (9) is the main concern but the $17 offers significant overlay.
SCARLI JAPALI (#9) is a C/D winner at Canterbury 1900m on Soft 6 (won 01/01/26 by 0.36L). Strong place specialist (2.69 score) with 71% career place rate. Rail draw (1) is ideal in wet conditions. Climbs in class from BM64 to BM79 but has held form at BM74 level (3rd Wagga 3200m).
KEY RISKS
- Allegro Miss ($2.40) is the class horse and may simply be too good - won well last start here
- Assailant resuming for Waterhouse/Bott stable with trial form - danger if fit first-up
- Wide barriers (2, 4, 7, 11) disadvantaged on wet Canterbury track
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | J/T | Form | Wet | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Captain Fenkel | 5 | Grima/Beer | 52x62 | 1-4 | 28 |
| 2 | Oakfield Hawk | 9 | Sherry/Lees | 16x71 | 3-4 | 80 |
| 3 | Assailant | 2 | Hyeronimus/W-B | x33x8 | 0-2 | 38 |
| 4 | Subarctic | 10 | Lloyd/Smith | 89341 | 3-7 | 35 |
| 6 | Stylebender | 4 | Collett/Buchanan | 219x7 | 4-11 | 30 |
| 7 | Mortlake | 11 | Rawiller/Baker | 56x39 | 0-0 | 22 |
| 8 | Humanity | 7 | Bayliss/Dilmi | 88333 | 0-1 | 32 |
| 9 | Scarli Japali | 1 | Keatings/Warren | 34381 | 4-6 | 42 |
| 10 | Allegro Miss | 6 | Ford/Karakatsanis | 83325 | 2-4 | 50 |
| 11 | North Terrace | 8 | Gibbons/Cummings | 31333 | 0-1 | 38 |
#5 It’s A Wonder - SCRATCHED
EXPERT CONSENSUS
| Sources checked: 1 | Top picks: #3 Assailant, #10 Allegro Miss, #8 Humanity, #9 Scarli Japali |
EW EV: +22.0% | Place Specialist: 2.69 | Score: 80.0/100