Caulfield R4 | 1400m BM70
Fri 24 Jan | 12:50pm | 12r | Good 4
ACTION
NO BET - No selections meet minimum thresholds. Market prices largely reflect true value with no significant overlays identified.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Paradise City | $4.50 | 39.6 | 22% | -0.1% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | Everain | $5.00 | 36.8 | 20% | 0.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Conchiero | $5.50 | 35.5 | 18% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Le Ferrari | $8.50 | 35.7 | 12% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Quiseen | $9.00 | 33.7 | 11% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 14 | Supercilious | $5.50 | 32.0 | 18% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Ferrari | 7 | $8.50 | 2-5-5-3-7-2 | BM70 | 1/4 C, 5/24 D | WATCH |
| 2 | Delivering | 3 | $34 | 1-1-1-2-x-6 | BM70 | 0/0 C, 2/10 D | PASS |
| 3 | Shoeless | 8 | $35 | 1-1-8-6-8-x | BM70 | 0/3 C, 1/8 D | PASS |
| 4 | Jacks On Ice | 5 | $35 | 9-3-4-6-8-2 | BM70 | 0/0 C, 0/3 D | PASS |
| 5 | Nodachi | 6 | $51 | 4-2-1-x-8 | BM70 | 0/1 C, 2/12 D | PASS |
| 6 | Arizona Activist | 10 | $19 | 4-x-2-4-6-2 | BM70 | 0/0 C, 0/3 D | PASS |
| 7 | Georgie Get Mad | 12 | $15 | 8-x-4-9-3-6 | BM70 | 0/6 C, 3/18 D | PASS |
| 8 | Paradise City | 11 | $4.50 | x-3-7-x-8-2 | BM70 | 0/4 C, 2/6 D | WATCH |
| 9 | Quiseen | 1 | $9.00 | 1-x-7-5-2 | BM70 | 0/0 C, 0/0 D | WATCH |
| 11 | Conchiero | 13 | $5.50 | 2-1-1-8-x | BM70 | 0/1 C, 1/1 D | WATCH |
| 13 | Everain | 2 | $5.00 | x-1-1-4-4-x | BM70 | 0/0 C, 0/2 D | WATCH |
| 14 | Supercilious | 9 | $5.50 | 5-3-6-x-4-5 | BM70 | 0/5 C, 0/4 D | WATCH |
Scratched: #10 Bons To Riches, #12 Heavenly Eagle, #15 Two Wolves
ANALYSIS
Speed: Paradise City ran 2nd at Flemington over 1400m in 82.2s (BM74) - best recent figure. Everain and Conchiero have talent but resuming from lengthy breaks (177 and 258 days respectively).
Pace: MODERATE expected - several on-pace types (Le Ferrari, Quiseen from barrier 1) should ensure genuine speed without overly contested tempo. Mid-field runners may benefit.
Class: Even BM70 field. Conchiero (Waterhouse/Bott) and Everain (Freedman) dropping from higher grades but both resuming cold. Paradise City tested at BM78 level with good efforts.
Bias: Track bias data LOW confidence. Good 4 surface typically neutral at Caulfield 1400m.
CONTENDER NOTES
#8 Paradise City ($4.50) - Market favourite. 2nd at Flemington BM74 last start behind Georgie Get Mad (who also runs here). Has 4 starts at Caulfield without a win (best 2nd). Wide barrier 11 a concern. Peter Moody-trained mare with 5 wins from 22 starts. Score: 39.6
#13 Everain ($5.00) - Resuming from 177-day break for Freedman stable. Won 2 from 5 with excellent trial form. Good barrier 2. Untested at track but won fresh at Mornington. Question marks over fitness first-up at metro level. Score: 36.8
#11 Conchiero ($5.50) - 258 days since racing. Waterhouse/Bott galloper with 2 wins from 7. Won at 1400m Warwick Farm as maiden. Trialled well but very wide barrier 13 and big class test first-up at Caulfield metro. Score: 35.5
#1 Le Ferrari ($8.50) - Honest galloper with 6 wins from 34 starts. Excellent distance record (5/24 at 1400m). Ran 2nd at Geelong BM70 last start. Has won at this track. Solid good track record (5/23). Slight value at $8.50. Score: 35.7
#9 Quiseen ($9.00) - Inside barrier 1 ideal. Mare with 4 wins from 11 starts (36% win rate). Untested at 1400m. Ran 2nd at Caulfield 1200m last start. Distance query is key risk. Score: 33.7
KEY RISKS
- Market Efficiency: No significant value detected - market appears well-priced
- Resumers: Three key contenders (Everain, Conchiero, Shoeless) resuming from extended breaks with fitness unknowns
- Wide Barriers: Several fancied runners drawn wide (Paradise City 11, Conchiero 13)
MARKET WATCH
Le Ferrari at $8.50 offers marginal value (+2% edge) given consistent form and strong distance record, but insufficient for recommended bet. Monitor for any drift beyond $10.
No qualifying selections | All contenders WATCH tier | Market efficient