Caulfield R8 | 1200m BM74
Fri 24 Jan | 3:10pm | 10r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #2 JOB DONE @ $6.50 - 0.7u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Salty Pearl | $4.00 | 41.0 | 22% | -12% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Job Done | $6.50 | 48.5 | 16% | +4% | VALUE | 0.7% |
| 1 | Space Rider | $6.00 | 42.3 | 15% | -10% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Custom | $6.50 | 40.8 | 14% | -9% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Romantic Encounter | $7.00 | 38.2 | 12% | -16% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Miss Ole | $10.00 | 36.5 | 10% | -20% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Job Done has the best recent form with back-to-back wins at BM64/BM74 before a narrow 3rd at Geelong (63.49s for 1100m). Pace: MODERATE scenario expected with no dominant leader; suits on-pace runners from midfield barriers. Class: First metro Caulfield run but has won at BM74 level; Salty Pearl dropping from fillies stakes races. Bias: Track bias data confidence LOW - neutral bias assumed.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Job Done presents the best value proposition in a competitive 3YO BM74. The gelding has won 3 of 5 starts with an 80% place strike rate, demonstrating remarkable consistency. His last-start 3rd at Geelong (beaten 0.46L) came against older horses and he was closing hard. The Price/Kent stable have this horse thriving and barrier 8 is workable in a moderate tempo. At $6.50, the market underrates his each-way credentials given the 46% calculated place probability.
KEY RISKS
- First run at Caulfield 1200m (0/0 C&D) - untested at track/trip combo
- Step up from provincial BM74 to metro level - slight query on class
kelly: 0.7% | ev: +5.4% EW | score: 48.5/100