Morphettville R4 | 1600m BM72
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #5 KOMACHI @ $7.00 - 0.5u EW VALUE: #1 BAMYAN BUDDHA @ $9.00 - 0.5u EW
No Best Bet identified - market favorite Teardrop Rotation is fairly priced with no edge.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Teardrop Rotation | $3.10 | 32% | -0.8% | 82.5% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | I Catchem Fox | $4.00 | 18% | -28% | 50.3% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Komachi | $7.00 | 16% | +12% | 43.9% | VALUE | 0.5u EW |
| 1 | Bamyan Buddha | $9.00 | 13% | +17% | 36.5% | VALUE | 0.5u EW |
| 2 | Darknconfidential | $10.00 | 11% | +10% | 30.5% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Buillt | $10.00 | 10% | 0% | 28.0% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Surprise Coming | $7.00 | 9% | -37% | 25.5% | PASS | - |
| 3 | Full Of Sincerity | $13.00 | 9% | +17% | 24.9% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Teardrop Rotation has best recent form winning at Flemington BM84 (95.91s/1600m), class above this. Komachi won at Morphettville 1800m BM76 in 111.47s on 27/12/25.
Pace: MODERATE expected - Teardrop Rotation and I Catchem Fox likely to press, Komachi and Bamyan Buddha can sit midfield and finish. 8-runner field reduces pressure.
Class: BM72 is drop for several. Teardrop Rotation dropping from BM84 (clear class edge). Komachi dropping from BM76/78 level. Bamyan Buddha at level after BM72 win.
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW - no strong directional bias detected. Rail position not specified. Good 4 should suit most.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Komachi (#5) - Strong place specialist (1.42 score) with 55% career place rate. Won at Morphettville 1600m (Nov 22) and 1800m (Dec 27). C/D record of 3 wins from 8 starts at course, 4 wins from 10 at distance. Will Clarken stable in form. At $7.00 offers +12% edge with 44% place probability. EW EV of +11%.
Bamyan Buddha (#1) - Even stronger place specialist (1.71 score) with 53% career place rate over 47 starts. Won last start at Murray Bridge BM72 over 1600m. Course record of 3/19 with 16 places. At $9.00 offers +17% edge with 37% place probability. EW EV of +13.2%.
KEY RISKS
- Teardrop Rotation is the class runner dropping from BM84 Flemington - if runs to ability will be hard to beat
- Rain forecast - track may deteriorate; Komachi handles soft (3 wins), Bamyan Buddha prefers good track (8 wins from 32 good, only 1 from 13 soft)
- I Catchem Fox has outstanding place record (71%) and closed well last two - danger for minors
komachi: ev +11% | score: 48.6/100 | bamyan buddha: ev +13.2% | score: 49.0/100