Morphettville R6 | 1800m BM72
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 9r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #1 BOLT BY @ $18.00 - 1.5u EW
Secondary: #5 WILD WINNER @ $7.00 - 0.75u EW (Place Specialist)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolt By | $18.00 | 58 | 12% | +116% | VALUE | 1.5% |
| 6 | Coorong Tycoon | $3.30 | 55 | 24% | -21% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Conni Island | $3.80 | 54 | 22% | -16% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Wild Winner | $7.00 | 52 | 14% | -2% | EW_VALUE | 0.75% |
| 3 | Mellifluent | $5.50 | 48 | 15% | -18% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Thinkingnintynine | $14.00 | 45 | 8% | +12% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Bolt By has best recent figures at 1800m (wins at Clare 3.5L, Morphettville 2L), clearly suited to this trip. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - Conni Island likely leader from wide draw, Bolt By can settle midfield from barrier 1. Class: BM72 provincial grade - Bolt By proven at this level with 2 wins from 5 at BM68-74 range. Bias: Neutral bias expected on Good 4 track, no significant rail advantage.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Bolt By represents outstanding each-way value at $18. The 3yo gelding has won 2 of last 4 starts including a dominant 3.5L win at Clare over 1800m. Proven at C/D with 3 wins from 9 at the distance and experience at Morphettville (1 win from 13). The inside barrier is a positive in a 9-runner field and Dylan Caboche retains the ride. At odds of $18 the market severely underrates this horse’s proven staying ability.
Wild Winner is the supreme place specialist with 78% career place rate (14 places from 18 starts). While no win chance at the trip, the $2.15 place odds offer value given the 43% calculated place probability.
KEY RISKS
- Bolt By has not won at Morphettville since Nov 2025 (2 starts since)
- Rain forecast could shift track conditions and suit wet-trackers
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market favors Coorong Tycoon ($3.30) and Conni Island ($3.80) - both lightly-raced improvers stepping up in trip. Neither has proven form at 1800m, making them underlays. Coorong Tycoon has no starts beyond 2000m with 0 wins at the distance. Conni Island has never started beyond 1507m.
PLACE SPECIALISTS
| # | Horse | Place Rate | Score | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wild Winner | 78% | 2.81 | STRONG SPECIALIST |
| 1 | Bolt By | 64% | 2.22 | STRONG SPECIALIST |
bolt by: ev +100% | wild winner: place ev +7.5% | data: sportsbetform.com.au
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/morphettville_race_6.md