Morphettville R8 | 1050m BM72
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 9r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #6 NOBLE MAGNATE @ $15.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clarence | $4.20 | 58 | 22% | -8% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Bristler | $6.00 | 52 | 16% | -4% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Purfect Line | $5.50 | 48 | 15% | -18% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Outpost | $6.50 | 50 | 15% | -3% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Noble Magnate | $15.00 | 52 | 8% | +20% | VALUE | 0.36% |
| 5 | Gold Spirit | $7.00 | 45 | 12% | -16% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Yasuke | $6.00 | 38 | 10% | -40% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Babayka | $20.00 | 40 | 6% | -8% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Wally West | $10.00 | 35 | 7% | -30% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Clarence has the best recent figures (BM82 placing), 3-5pts clear of field. Pace: MODERATE shape expected - Bristler and Outpost likely to roll forward, no dominant leader. Class: Most runners are BM64-72 regulars; Noble Magnate dropping from Alice Springs open class. Bias: Neutral bias expected on Good 4, rail position not specified.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Noble Magnate represents each-way value at $15. Fresh from two solid trials (won at Gawler, 2nd at Strathalbyn), this 6yo has a strong record at the 1000-1050m trip (3 wins from 14 starts). The inside barrier (1) is advantageous in a 9-horse field. While returning from 292 days off, the trial form suggests fitness is there. At $15/$3.75, the EW EV calculates to +27.5% - the only positive expectation play in the race.
KEY RISKS
- Long absence (292 days since race start) - relying on trial form
- Rising from provincial Alice Springs to SA metro Morphettville
PLACE SPECIALISTS
| Horse | Place Rate | Expected | Specialist Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarence | 74% | 53% | 1.40 |
| Bristler | 66% | 38% | 1.72 |
| Purfect Line | 63% | 36% | 1.75 |
Note: Clarence is market favorite but -8% edge makes it a WATCH only.
kelly: 0.36% | ew_ev: +27.5% | score: 52/100 data source: sportsbetform.com.au