Sunshine Coast R10 | 1000m BM78
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 13r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #6 THE FIXER @ $26.00 - 1.5u E/W
EW VALUE: #7 PORT ERIN @ $11.00 - 1.0u E/W
NO WIN BET - Favorite Yoyo Yeezy ($1.80) offers no value at compressed odds.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Yoyo Yeezy | 1.80 | 56 | 45% | -19% | UNDERLAY | - |
| 8 | Vindicta | 6.00 | 52 | 14% | -16% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Power Of The Brave | 7.50 | 48 | 12% | -10% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | Moonhaven | 7.50 | 44 | 10% | -10% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Port Erin | 11.00 | 54 | 10% | +10% | EW VALUE | 1.0u |
| 6 | The Fixer | 26.00 | 78 | 8% | +108% | EW VALUE | 1.5u |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Yoyo Yeezy has fastest raw figures (56.79s last start at Eagle Farm 1000m) but untested at this venue. Power Of The Brave won at Randwick in 56.85s on Boxing Day.
Pace: FAST expected - multiple speed types (Yoyo Yeezy, Vindicta, Laydownlily) will contest the lead. This sets up well for on-pacers and stalkers.
Class: BM78 provincial. Yoyo Yeezy stepping up significantly from BM70/CL3 level - big class test. The Fixer and Port Erin both proven at this level.
Bias: Soft 5 track with Rain. The Fixer has 4 wins from 6 soft starts (67%) - outstanding wet track specialist. Port Erin 1/6 on soft but placed 4 times (67% place rate).
SELECTION RATIONALE
The Fixer is the standout EW value at $26. Exceptional wet track record (4/6 soft, 67% win rate), long spell but 2nd in recent trial at Doomben. At this price, the value is enormous with a 3.69 place specialist score. The 182-day layoff is the key risk, but trainer Jack Bruce has Vindicta also in this race, suggesting stable is primed.
Port Erin qualifies via Path A (Value Overlay) and Path B (Place Specialist). Outstanding 67% career place rate (10/15) and proven at BM75 level at Eagle Farm. Wide barrier (17) is a concern but this horse has placed from wide draws before. At $11, offers genuine EW value.
KEY RISKS
- Yoyo Yeezy - class-bound progressive type may simply be too good despite short odds
- Both EW selections drawn wide (barriers 13 and 17) in a 13-runner field
ew_stake: 2.5u total | selections: 2 | data: sportsbetform.com.au