Sunshine Coast R3 | 1800m BM78
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 11r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #11 OKESUTORA @ $10.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Diamond Epic | $2.60 | 52 | 30% | -22% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | La Rosetta | $4.00 | 48 | 20% | -20% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Last Chance Saloon | $5.00 | 45 | 18% | -10% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Okesutora | $10.00 | 60 | 12% | +20% | VALUE | 0.56% |
| 12 | Fire And Light | $9.00 | 38 | 10% | -10% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Bavarian Lady | $14.00 | 47 | 8% | +12% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Soft | C/D | Going | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Last Chance Saloon | 1 | $5.00 | 19774 | 2/13 | 1/6 | 2/13 | 45 |
| 3 | Arizona Dreaming | 11 | $34.00 | 69x78 | 0/9 | 0/7 | 0/9 | 25 |
| 4 | Guarded Optimist | 10 | $17.00 | 111x7 | 4/13 | 1/2 | 4/13 | 42 |
| 5 | Diamond Epic | 3 | $2.60 | 52321 | 1/7 | 0/1 | 1/7 | 52 |
| 6 | Four Ace | 14 | $34.00 | 16287 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 28 |
| 8 | Power Pack | 12 | $41.00 | 3x967 | 1/5 | 0/2 | 1/5 | 22 |
| 9 | Bavarian Lady | 13 | $14.00 | 21311 | 2/19 | 0/2 | 2/19 | 47 |
| 11 | Okesutora | 9 | $10.00 | 18x33 | 2/8 | 0/3 | 2/8 | 60 |
| 12 | Fire And Light | 7 | $9.00 | 41x47 | 0/9 | 0/0 | 0/9 | 38 |
| 13 | La Rosetta | 8 | $4.00 | 5491x | 2/5 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 48 |
| 14 | Flying Rothe | 6 | $126.00 | 88868 | 0/5 | 3/11 | 0/5 | 15 |
Scratched: #2 Archer’s Game, #7 Drialle, #10 Jenni Moreese
ANALYSIS
Speed: Diamond Epic ($2.60) has best recent figures from BM70 win at Eagle Farm (96.63s). La Rosetta progressing quickly after soft track 1600m win.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No dominant leaders; Last Chance Saloon and La Rosetta likely to contest early. Closers have chance if pace honest.
Class: BM78 provincial grade. Diamond Epic and La Rosetta both rising from BM65-70 wins - class test. Okesutora has BM65 form but placed in stronger BM85 fields.
Bias: Neutral (LOW confidence). Soft 5 with rain - deteriorating track may favour on-pacers as race progresses.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Okesutora (#11) offers genuine value at $10.00. Strong place specialist (score 1.74) with 50% career place rate. Recent form solid: 4th (2.9L) and 3rd (2.6L) at this track at 1600m in BM62-65. Step up to 1800m suits - won over 2200m at Seymour and Rockhampton earlier. Trainer Mark Currie has stable in form. Rob Thorburn retains ride after recent placings.
The favourite Diamond Epic ($2.60) is clearly talented but faces first test at 1800m (0 starts at trip), rising in class to BM78, and has modest soft track record (1/7). Fair odds ~$3.30 suggests underlay territory.
KEY RISKS
- First time 1800m - Okesutora untried at exact distance (though won 2200m)
- Wide barrier (9) - May need to go back from midfield draw
- Soft track specialist doubt - 2/8 on soft, better on good ground
GREEN LIGHTS
- Strong place consistency (50% career)
- Trainer Mark Currie placing horses well
- Distance should suit based on 2200m form
- +20% edge at current odds
kelly: 0.56% | ev: +$0.17/u | score: 59.8/100