Sunshine Coast R9 | 1200m Listed
Fri 24 Jan | 9:57am | 12r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - Market priced efficiently; no positive edge identified on key contenders.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hell | 14 | $3.20 | 28% | -16.8% | 66% | VALUE |
| 14 | Jonny Da Wolf | 10 | $6.00 | 15% | -16.0% | 39% | WATCH |
| 6 | Hatchet | 4 | $6.50 | 14% | -2.5% | 35% | WATCH |
| 9 | Mister Bianco | 3 | $8.00 | 11% | -4.0% | 30% | WATCH |
| 12 | Zouperb | 6 | $9.50 | 10% | -5.0% | 27% | WATCH |
| 5 | Battlefield | 12 | $7.00 | 12% | -16.0% | 33% | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Hell (#4) has the best recent figures from BM78 win at Eagle Farm (70.66s); Hatchet (#6) consistent at Open level.
Pace: MODERATE expected - Hell and Jonny Da Wolf likely to press, Hatchet to sit midfield from barrier 4.
Class: Listed race attracting BM78-90 performers; no standout class edge for any runner.
Bias: Neutral bias expected on Soft 5; track favoring on-pace runners in wet conditions.
CONTENDER PROFILES
#4 HELL $3.20 (FAV)
-
Form: 1-3-2-7-1 Tony Gollan Jai Williams - Key: Won BM78 at Eagle Farm last start by 1.54L on Soft; 5/12 wins on soft tracks
- Concern: Wide barrier (14) in 12-horse field; stepping up from BM78 to Listed
- Soft form: 5 wins from 12 starts (42%) - handles conditions
-
Score: 45.3 Tier: VALUE
#6 HATCHET $6.50
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Form: 1-2-5-4-6-4 Robert Heathcote Vlad Duric - Key: Best barrier (4); proven at Open level with 7/43 wins; 3/14 on soft
- Concern: 0 wins from 5 starts at Sunshine Coast; needs to break C/D duck
- Place specialist score: 1.69 - solid place credentials (56% career)
-
Score: 41.1 Tier: WATCH
#14 JONNY DA WOLF $6.00
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Form: 4-1-1-3-x-2 Chris & Corey Munce Jake Bayliss - Key: Progressive 5yo with 73% place strike; 2 wins from 10 on soft
- Concern: No course experience; form at BM85/CL6 level below this
- Place specialist score: 2.32 - STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST
-
Score: 38.8 Tier: WATCH
#9 MISTER BIANCO $8.00
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Form: 4-3-x-5-1-6 Paul Shailer Michael Rodd - Key: C/D winner; 4/9 wins on soft (44%); ideal barrier (3)
- Concern: 6th of 11 in BM90 last start; needs to bounce back
- Place specialist score: 2.91 - STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST (65% career placing)
-
Score: 29.6 Tier: PASS
#12 ZOUPERB $9.50
-
Form: 2-3-2-3-4 Adam Campton M Harley - Key: Excellent consistency (61% place rate); C/D experience (1 win from 3)
- Concern: No wins last 5; may lack finishing punch at this level
- Place specialist score: 2.91 - STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST
-
Score: 27.1 Tier: PASS
WET TRACK CREDENTIALS
| # | Horse | Soft W-P/S | Soft Win% | Soft Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hell | 5-9/12 | 42% | 75% |
| 9 | Mister Bianco | 4-7/9 | 44% | 78% |
| 6 | Hatchet | 3-7/14 | 21% | 50% |
| 12 | Zouperb | 3-10/15 | 20% | 67% |
| 14 | Jonny Da Wolf | 2-6/10 | 20% | 60% |
| 5 | Battlefield | 0-2/5 | 0% | 40% |
KEY RISKS
- Hell: Wide barrier (14) could compromise in wet; market price offers no value
- Battlefield: Poor soft track record (0/5) despite good recent form on good tracks
- Field quality: Competitive Listed field with no standout; race could produce any result
MARKET ASSESSMENT
The market is pricing Hell correctly at ~$3.20 (31% implied) against our assessed 28% true probability. No overlay exists on the top contenders. The 127.7% market percentage indicates an overround race with limited value opportunities.
Hatchet at $6.50 represents the closest to fair value (fair odds $6.67), but the lack of C/D wins is a concern.
Jonny Da Wolf shows strong place specialist credentials (73% career place rate) but is priced accordingly.
RECOMMENDATION
PASS - Monitor market movements. If Hell drifts to $4.00+ or Hatchet to $8.00+, reassess for value. Current prices offer negative expected value across the board.
score: 45.3/100 (best) | ev: negative | market: efficient