Pinjarra Scarpside R1 | 2200m CL1
Sat 25 Jan | 4:23pm | 7r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - No value identified. Market correctly prices the principals. Weak maiden field with no proven winners.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declared Innocent | $2.40 | 42 | 32% | -23.2% | WATCH | 0 |
| 6 | She’s Resolute | $4.20 | 48 | 22% | -7.6% | WATCH | 0 |
| 7 | Danea Rock | $3.00 | 35 | 18% | -46.0% | PASS | 0 |
| 8 | My De Grece | $6.00 | 28 | 10% | -40% | PASS | 0 |
| 2 | Obscentino | $23.00 | 22 | 4% | -8% | PASS | 0 |
| 3 | Divine Currency | $19.00 | 24 | 5% | -5% | PASS | 0 |
| 4 | Hero | $41.00 | 18 | 2% | -18% | PASS | 0 |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Dist | C/D | Going | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declared Innocent | 9 | $2.40 | x765 | 0/4 | 0/4 | 0/15 Good | Neutral | WATCH |
| 2 | Obscentino | 2 | $23.00 | 7678 | 0/10 | 0/0 | 0/15 Good | Neutral | PASS |
| 3 | Divine Currency | 8 | $19.00 | 4x7 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/10 Good | Neutral | PASS |
| 4 | Hero | 5 | $41.00 | 7 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/2 Good | Neutral | PASS |
| 6 | She’s Resolute | 3 | $4.20 | 76532 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/15 Good | Neutral | WATCH |
| 7 | Danea Rock | 1 | $3.00 | x953 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 0/23 Good | Neutral | PASS |
| 8 | My De Grece | 6 | $6.00 | 79x97 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/10 Good | Neutral | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No standout speed figures in this weak CL1 field. All runners are maidens or lightly raced with no wins from combined 117 career starts.
Pace: SLOW expected. No confirmed leaders, staying trip should suit backmarkers. She’s Resolute and Danea Rock likely to settle midfield.
Class: CL1 provincial - weak form lines. Recent placings only indicator of ability.
Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rail draw may offer slight advantage in small field.
RUNNER NOTES
#1 Declared Innocent ($2.40 FAV)
- 0/25 career (6 places, 24% place rate)
- Best form: 2nd Pinjarra 2000m, 3rd Northam 2200m
- Wide barrier (9) in small field
- Trainer John Popescu, jockey Austin Galati
- Assessment: Best recent form but overbet at $2.40. Fair odds $3.12.
#6 She’s Resolute ($4.20)
- 0/18 career (4 places, 22% place rate)
- Best form: 2nd Bunbury 2238m (LT), 3rd Bunbury 2000m
- Good barrier (3), distance suited
- Trainer Brendon Fitzgerald, jockey Jefferson Tsang
- Assessment: Closest to value. Strong recent placings at staying trips.
#7 Danea Rock ($3.00)
- 0/23 career (2 places, 9% place rate)
- Best form: 3rd Bunbury 2238m (same race as She’s Resolute)
- Inside barrier (1), jockey Brad Parnham (best rider)
- Assessment: Overbet based on jockey booking. She’s Resolute beat her by a length last start.
EACH-WAY ANALYSIS
| Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Declared Innocent | -23.2% | +14.8% | -4.2% | NO VALUE |
| #6 She’s Resolute | -7.6% | +14.8% | +3.6% | MARGINAL |
| #7 Danea Rock | -46.0% | -23.0% | -34.5% | NO VALUE |
She’s Resolute shows marginal EW value but insufficient edge for a bet.
KEY RISKS
- Weak field - All maidens, form unreliable
- Weather - Rain may change track conditions
- Wide barrier #1 - Declared Innocent from gate 9
VERDICT
This is a weak CL1 maiden staying race with no proven winners from 117 combined career starts. The favorite (#1 Declared Innocent) is the most consistent placer but is overbet at $2.40 (fair odds $3.12).
#6 She’s Resolute offers the closest approach to value at $4.20 with recent staying form (2nd, 3rd at 2000m+) and shows marginal EW value (+3.6%), but the edge is insufficient to recommend a bet.
#7 Danea Rock is heavily overbet at $3.00 (fair odds $5.56) likely due to jockey Brad Parnham booking.
Recommendation: PASS - No value. If forced to watch, She’s Resolute for place at $1.33.
kelly: 0% | ev: negative | score: <45/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au