Pinjarra Scarpside R7 | 1400m BM56
Sat 25 Jan | 8:00pm | 11r | Good 4
ACTION
EW VALUE: #8 CANTRIX @ $9.00 - 1.75u EW
Secondary: #2 SURF PATROL @ $11.00 - 1.5u EW (Place Specialist)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vatican Storm | $1.65 | 50.6 | 45% | -26% | VALUE | - |
| 8 | Cantrix | $9.00 | 70.6 | 18% | +62% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.75% |
| 2 | Surf Patrol | $11.00 | 76.0 | 10% | +10% | VALUE | 1.50% |
| 1 | Princess In Red | $6.00 | 45.0 | 12% | -28% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Come On Emma | $9.50 | 42.0 | 9% | -15% | WATCH | - |
| 12 | Azena | $10.00 | 38.0 | 8% | -20% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Vatican Storm posted best recent figures (70.18s for 1200m), but stepping up in trip. Cantrix won at Pinjarra 3 weeks ago in 77.97s for 1300m - progressive type.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Vatican Storm likely to press, Cantrix can sit handy from barrier 4. Surf Patrol (barrier 9) needs cover but has tactical speed.
Class: BM56 provincial grade. Vatican Storm rising sharply from 3YO maiden company. Cantrix won CL1 last start - class appropriate. Surf Patrol placed in CL3/CL5 - fits well.
Bias: Track bias data LOW confidence - rail position unknown. Good 4 surface suits most runners.
SELECTION RATIONALE
CANTRIX (70.6 score, +62% edge) is the clear value play. The Jamie Morgan-trained mare has outstanding form: 2 wins from 5 starts (40% strike rate) with 4 placings (80% ITM). Won at this track 3 weeks ago over 1300m, now stepping to 1400m which suits her closing style. At $9.00, the market significantly underrates her chances given the progressive profile and course-winning form. The favorite Vatican Storm is untested beyond 1200m and faces a significant class rise - his $1.65 represents poor value despite obvious talent.
SURF PATROL qualifies as a Place Specialist (score 3.2) with 62% career place rate. At $11.00 each-way, the place odds of $2.63 offer value given his consistent placings record.
KEY RISKS
- Vatican Storm may have superior class - only 3 career starts with plenty of upside
- Cantrix has never raced beyond 1300m (untested at 1400m)
- Rain forecast may affect track - both selections prefer Good ground
cantrix: kelly 1.75% | ev: +59%/u | score: 70.6/100 surf patrol: kelly 1.5% | ev: +10%/u | score: 76.0/100 (place specialist)