Sha Tin R10 | 1200m CL2
Sat 25 Jan | 8:15pm | 14r | Good
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #9 MOUNT EVEREST @ $7.50 - 1.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mount Everest | 7.50 | 68.5 | 15% | +12.5% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.4% |
| 1 | Mickley | 10.00 | 58.2 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 1.8% |
| 3 | Rising Force | 3.60 | 62.0 | 23% | -17.2% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Happy Index | 3.30 | 58.0 | 22% | -27.4% | WATCH | - |
| 14 | Jubilant Winner | 11.00 | 52.5 | 10% | +10.0% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | A Time For Us | 15.00 | 48.0 | 8% | +20.0% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Rising Force posted fastest recent time (68.96s) winning CL3 on 1 Jan; Mount Everest’s 69.29s CL4 win competitive at weights. Pace: CONTESTED shape with multiple early runners (Rising Force, Happy Index, Mount Everest) - suits stalkers/on-pace types. Class: Class 2 rise for several - Rising Force comes off CL3 win (1.5L margin), Mount Everest promoted after CL4 win. Bias: Neutral track bias, no rail advantage data available.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Mount Everest (#9) represents the best value in this Class 2 sprint. The 4yo gelding has an excellent Sha Tin record (5:2-1-0) and proven at the 1200m trip (4:2-0-1). His last-start CL4 win (27 Dec) was accomplished from barrier 4 in 69.29s, defeating a 14-horse field by 0.3L. Rising to Class 2 is the logical step and the $7.50 price offers a +12.5% edge against assessed 15% win probability. The inside draw (barrier 4 today) suits his racing pattern.
Rising Force (#3) and Happy Index (#4) are the logical favourites but both are short enough to offer no edge. Rising Force’s wide barrier 14 is a concern at Sha Tin 1200m where inside draws dominate. Happy Index has Zac Purton aboard but only 1 Sha Tin start and struggles on Good ground (0/6).
KEY RISKS
- Class rise - first start at CL2 level
- Contested tempo may burn off front-runners
kelly: 1.4% | ev: +$0.55/u | score: 68.5/100
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Going | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mickley | 8 | 10.00 | 55757 | CL2 | 19:1 | Good 3/17 | VALUE |
| 2 | Heaving | 1 | 12.00 | x11x5 | CL3>2 | 2:0 | Good 3/5 | WATCH |
| 3 | Rising Force | 14 | 3.60 | 12x71 | CL3>2 | 4:2 | Good 2/3 | WATCH |
| 4 | Happy Index | 2 | 3.30 | 439x3 | CL3>2 | 1:0 | Good 0/6 | WATCH |
| 5 | Cheaha | 7 | 41.00 | 8x59x | CL3 | 2:0 | Good 1/5 | PASS |
| 6 | Giant Spirit | 6 | 31.00 | 13111 | CL2 | 0:0 | Good 4/6 | WATCH |
| 7 | Origin Of Form | 9 | 51.00 | 21xx- | CL3 | 0:0 | Good 1/3 | PASS |
| 8 | A Time For Us | 3 | 15.00 | 1x48- | CL3>2 | 2:0 | Good 1/3 | WATCH |
| 9 | Mount Everest | 4 | 7.50 | 1361- | CL4>2 | 5:2 | Good 2/5 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 10 | Winning Buddies | 12 | 31.00 | 1x— | CL2 | 0:0 | Hvy 1/1 | PASS |
| 11 | Golden Empire | 11 | 31.00 | x7769 | CL3 | 26:4 | Good 6/40 | PASS |
| 12 | Ryui Kokoroe | 10 | 71.00 | 11x7- | CL3>2 | 1:0 | Good 1/5 | PASS |
| 13 | Wolf Coming | 13 | 12.00 | x73– | CL3 | 4:0 | Good 0/6 | WATCH |
| 14 | Jubilant Winner | 5 | 11.00 | 4x118 | CL4>2 | 11:2 | Good 2/11 | WATCH |
CONNECTIONS
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | J/T Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mount Everest | Keith Yeung | W Y So | Neutral |
| 3 | Rising Force | Richard Kingscote | P Yiu | Neutral |
| 4 | Happy Index | Zac Purton | K L Man | HOT - Purton 22% sr |
| 1 | Mickley | Dylan Browne McMonagle | John Size | HOT - Size 18% sr |
DATA SOURCE
| sportsbetform.com.au | Collected: 2026-01-25T03:54:21Z | Quality: HIGH |
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/sha-tin_race_10.md