Sha Tin R2 | 1200m CL3
Sat 25 Jan | 4:00pm | 14r | Good
ACTION
VALUE: #12 SEA SAPPHIRE @ $5.50 - 1.1u WIN
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sea Sapphire | 5.50 | 52 | 20% | +10.0% | VALUE | 1.1% |
| 1 | Lucky Eight | 4.60 | 48 | 22% | +1.2% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Gallant Design | 5.50 | 45 | 18% | -1.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Invictus Dragon | 6.00 | 42 | 17% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Better And Better | 10.00 | 38 | 10% | 0% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Winning Champion | 13.00 | 35 | 8% | +4% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Sea Sapphire has solid figures from consistent CL4 form; Lucky Eight best raw figure but regressing. Pace: MODERATE expected - Gallant Design and Dash likely to press, suits midfield runners like Sea Sapphire. Class: Sea Sapphire rises from CL4 after running 2nd LTO; Lucky Eight has been competitive at CL3. Bias: No significant bias detected (LOW confidence); barriers 1-6 slight advantage at Sha Tin 1200m.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Sea Sapphire ran a strong 2nd at Sha Tin over 1200m on Jan 1, beaten just a nose in CL4 (70.17s). The 6yo gelding has proven C/D form (2 wins from 14 starts at Sha Tin, 2 wins from 22 at 1200m) and draws barrier 4 - ideal to slot in midfield. Market shows $5.50 vs fair odds of $5.00, giving a genuine 10% edge. The rise to CL3 is manageable given his competitive record against similar horses. Maxime Guyon rides, providing a reliable pilot.
KEY RISKS
- Class rise from CL4 to CL3 - first start at this level
- Rain forecast may affect track; Sea Sapphire’s sole soft track run was poor (12th)
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | Jockey | Wt | Form | C/D | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucky Eight | 13 | Z Purton | 61 | 43783 | 3/18, 4/32 | 4.60 |
| 2 | Quartz Legend | 10 | E Wong | 61 | 1x386 | 0/3, 0/3 | 10.00 |
| 3 | Full Of Laughter | 11 | R Kingscote | 57.5 | 6 | 0/1, - | 34.00 |
| 4 | Gallant Design | 5 | B Avdulla | 57.5 | DEBUT | -, - | 5.50 |
| 5 | Stormy Knight | 14 | H Bowman | 57.5 | x0x1 | 0/2, 0/2 | 14.00 |
| 6 | Super Rubick Kid | 7 | J Orman | 57.5 | DEBUT | -, - | 61.00 |
| 7 | Supreme Voyager | 2 | J Chau | 57.5 | 9 | 0/1, - | 46.00 |
| 8 | Watch This One | 3 | K Teetan | 56.5 | 498 | 0/4, 0/6 | 16.00 |
| 9 | Winning Champion | 12 | H Bentley | 56 | 62668 | 0/6, 0/6 | 13.00 |
| 10 | Invictus Dragon | 6 | V Ho | 55.5 | 5x559 | 0/5, 0/3 | 6.00 |
| 11 | Better And Better | 8 | L Ferraris | 55 | 95354 | 0/8, 0/4 | 10.00 |
| 12 | Sea Sapphire | 4 | M Guyon | 55 | 5582 | 2/14, 2/22 | 5.50 |
| 13 | Happy Buddies | 9 | D Leung | 53.5 | x589 | 0/3, 0/3 | 126.00 |
| 14 | Dash | 1 | A Badel | 52 | 9x846 | 0/6, 0/7 | 15.00 |
MARKET NOTES
- Favourite: #1 Lucky Eight @ $4.60 (22% implied)
- Market %: 130% (competitive market)
- Expert tips: Limited coverage available
- Data source: sportsbetform.com.au
kelly: 1.1% | ev: +$0.55/u | score: 52/100
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/sha-tin_race_2.md