Eagle Farm R5 | 1000m BM70
Sun 26 Jan | 10:00am | 12r | Soft 5
ACTION
EW VALUE: #7 SUPER FREEZE @ $6.50 - 1.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Super Freeze | $6.50 | 87.1 | 16% | +4.0% | EW_VALUE | 1.5u |
| 5 | Larado | $2.20 | 45.5 | 28% | -38% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Oohlalouvre | $3.20 | 38.2 | 12% | -62% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Bundella | $4.20 | 35.0 | 10% | -58% | PASS | - |
| 3 | Air We Go | $4.40 | 42.5 | 14% | -38% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Dont Call Me Honey | $5.50 | 40.0 | 14% | -23% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Super Freeze posted 55.76s at Townsville (Soft 1000m) last start - fastest sectional in field on wet track. Larado’s 57.91s at Sunshine Coast comparatively slower.
Pace: CONTESTED - Multiple speed types (Bundella, Apollo Ten, Mr Playtime) will contest the lead. Benefits on-pace runners with tactical speed. Super Freeze has shown ability to stalk pace.
Class: Rising from BM65 (Townsville) to BM70 metro. Last two wins (BM65, Open Trial) show upward trajectory. 4 wins from 10 starts (40%) indicates quality.
Bias: Soft 5 with rain - wet track form critical. Super Freeze: 2/3 (67%) on Soft. Larado: 1/1 on Soft. Oohlalouvre: 0/6 on Soft (major concern). Bundella: 0/4 on Soft.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Super Freeze represents value at $6.50 each-way. Two consecutive wins including last start victory on Soft 5 at Townsville (1.7L margin) demonstrates current form and wet track ability. The 67% strike rate on soft tracks (2/3) is outstanding. Wide barrier (11) is the main negative but contested pace should negate some of that disadvantage. Place specialist score of 2.04 (60% place rate vs 29% expected) makes each-way particularly attractive. EW EV of +5.4% meets Path A criteria.
KEY RISKS
- Wide barrier (11) - Must overcome outside draw in 12-horse field
- First time Eagle Farm - Unproven at the track (all wins provincial/country)
- Class rise - Stepping from Townsville BM65 to Eagle Farm metro BM70
MARKET WATCH
Larado ($2.20 favorite) looks short given wide barrier (12) and unproven at Eagle Farm. While 100% place rate is impressive, only 3 career starts makes sample size small. True odds closer to $3.50.
Oohlalouvre ($3.20) has terrible wet track form (0/6 on Soft) - strongly oppose on current surface.
ew_ev: +5.4% | score: 87.1/100 | path: A (Value Overlay)
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/eagle-farm_race_5.md