Warwick Farm R7 | 1400m BM72
Sun 26 Jan | 10:00am | 11r | Soft 5
ACTION
VALUE: #2 DUVANA @ $6.00 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Anthracite | $3.00 | 42.2 | 28% | -16% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Duvana | $6.00 | 48.1 | 18% | +8% | VALUE | 1.0% |
| 5 | Hopper | $4.80 | 44.0 | 20% | -4% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Missile Seeker | $8.00 | 40.5 | 12% | -4% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Il Passero | $9.00 | 38.0 | 11% | -1% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Saint Emilion | $14.00 | 32.0 | 7% | -2% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Anthracite has best raw ability (3 wins from 4 starts) but 134 days off and two trial failures raise concerns. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected with Duvana, Hydrometer, and Il Passero pressing forward; suits on-pace types. Class: Anthracite dropping from provincial wins but first Sydney start; Duvana rising from BM64 win with soft form. Bias: Soft 5 track with rain - Duvana has proven soft track form (1 win, 2 places from 6 soft starts).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Duvana offers the best value at $6.00 with genuine each-way appeal. Won BM64 at Beaumont on soft (13/12), then placed at BM78 level (6th of 11, only 0.7L off). Has proven wet track credentials (1/1/2 from 6 soft, 1/1/1 from 3 heavy) while favorite Anthracite has failed both recent barrier trials and faces first-up Sydney assignment after 134 days off. The $6.00 provides +8% edge to fair odds of $5.56. With 46% place probability and EW EV of +5.7%, this qualifies via Path A as each-way value.
KEY RISKS
- Anthracite has superior ability if anywhere near peak - three dominant provincial wins
- Duvana’s BM78 form was at Randwick on Good - this is BM72 but at Warwick Farm on Soft
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Going | C/D | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Emilion | 11 | $14 | 84x79 | 0/0/0 (2S) | 0-0/0-0 | 32 | PASS |
| 2 | Duvana | 3 | $6 | 3x16 | 1/1/2 (6S) | 0-0/0-3 | 48 | VALUE |
| 3 | Missile Seeker | 2 | $8 | 8x713 | N/A | 0-0/0-0 | 40 | WATCH |
| 4 | Anthracite | 10 | $3 | 2111x | 1/1/4 (11S) | 0-2/1-10 | 42 | WATCH |
| 5 | Hopper | 6 | $4.80 | 5657x4 | 2/2/3 (3S) | 0-0/0-1 | 44 | WATCH |
| 6 | Hydrometer | 5 | $18 | x4742 | 1/0/1 (4S) | 1-2/0-0 | 28 | PASS |
| 7 | Deputize | 7 | $17 | 816 7x3 | 0/0/1 (4S) | 0-0/0-1 | 30 | PASS |
| 8 | Direct Fire | 4 | $14 | 47379 3 | 0/0/0 (3S) | 0-0/0-0 | 32 | PASS |
| 9 | Il Passero | 8 | $9 | 2x236 | 2/2/3 (6S) | 0-0/1-11 | 38 | WATCH |
| 10 | Master Riley | 9 | $27 | 3724 | 1/1/2 (5S) | 0-2/0-1 | 25 | PASS |
| 11 | Ken’ker | 1 | $71 | 73364 3 | 2/2/5 (8S) | 0-2/0-10 | 18 | PASS |
MARKET ANALYSIS
- Favorite: Anthracite ($3.00) - 33% implied, 28% true = -16% edge (UNDERLAY)
- Market %: 125.3% (standard overround)
- Value: Duvana ($6.00) - 17% implied, 18% true = +8% edge
EACH-WAY ASSESSMENT
Duvana @ $6.00 EW (1/4 odds, 3 places)
- Win EV: +8.0%
- Place EV: +3.5%
- Combined EW EV: +5.7%
- Place Odds: $2.25
- Qualifies Path A: Odds >= $6, EW EV >= +5%, Place prob >= 30%
score: 48.1/100 | edge: +8% | ew_ev: +5.7% | tier: VALUE
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/warwick_farm_race_7.md