Canterbury R3 | 1100m BM78
Thu 30 Jan | 7:00pm | 8r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #7 RASKOL @ $11.00 - 0.8u EW
Secondary: #5 Ready To Shine @ $12 - WATCH (wide draw concern)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Agarwood | 3 | 1.85 | 35% | -35% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Albany Road | 2 | 2.60 | 25% | -35% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Raskol | 1 | 11.00 | 12% | +32% | VALUE | 0.8% |
| 5 | Ready To Shine | 8 | 12.00 | 10% | +20% | WATCH | 0.5% |
| 2 | Shaggy | 4 | 17.00 | 5% | -15% | PASS | - |
| 1 | The Face | 7 | 31.00 | 3% | -7% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Not That Easy | 5 | 34.00 | 2% | -32% | PASS | - |
| 9 | Vis I Do | 9 | 46.00 | 2% | -8% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Albany Road posted 63.53s winning at Kensington (1100m Soft) - best recent figure. Agarwood’s trial times unknown but won impressively in weaker grades.
Pace: MODERATE - no pronounced leaders. Albany Road and Agarwood likely to sit handy. Raskol can utilize inside draw to get perfect position.
Class: Agarwood stepping up significantly (146 days off, no 1100m form). Albany Road rising from BM72 win. Raskol jumps sharply after maiden win - genuine class query.
Bias: Track bias LOW confidence - neutral assumed. Inside draws (1-3) typically advantaged at Canterbury 1100m.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#7 Raskol offers genuine each-way value at $11. Peter Snowden filly showed ability winning maiden at Canterbury 1200m on soft (70.41s). Inside draw (1) is crucial at Canterbury. The 1100m is a slight query dropping back in trip but she showed speed winning her maiden trial by 2+ lengths. At 12% assessed chance vs 9% implied, there’s solid overlay. EW returns of $2.05 place represent value given 38% place probability.
The favorite #4 Agarwood is talented but 146 days off with no 1100m form is concerning. J McDonald booking is positive but $1.85 offers no margin for error. Fair odds ~$2.85.
#6 Albany Road won well last start but $2.60 is too short against an in-form Agarwood.
KEY RISKS
- Raskol dropping 100m in trip - untested at 1100m in races
- Agarwood’s class could be superior if she fires fresh
- Rain forecast may shift track to Soft - Raskol handles it (2/2 on Soft)
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Trainer | Form | C/D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Face | 7 | 60.5 | S Grima | T Ball | 58x66 | 0/2 |
| 2 | Shaggy | 4 | 59 | M Fitzgerald | A Kehoe | 77x6 | 0/0 |
| 4 | Agarwood | 3 | 57.5 | J McDonald | O’Shea/Charlton | 11x6x | 0/0 |
| 5 | Ready To Shine | 8 | 56.5 | A Morgan | M Smith | x2854x | 0/0 |
| 6 | Albany Road | 2 | 55 | R Bayliss | Waterhouse/Bott | x541x1 | 0/0 |
| 7 | Raskol | 1 | 54 | A Adkins | P Snowden | 318 | 1/1 |
| 8 | Not That Easy | 5 | 54 | A Collett | J Coyle | 8875x | 0/3 |
| 9 | Vis I Do | 9 | 54 | A McLucas | A Mountney | 78723 | 0/1 |
Scratched: #3 Stormland
GREEN LIGHTS / RED FLAGS
#7 Raskol
- GREEN: Inside barrier (1), C/D winner, Snowden stable, handles Soft
- RED: Class rise from maiden, untested 1100m
#4 Agarwood
- GREEN: J McDonald, class, natural ability
- RED: 146 days off, no 1100m form, short price
kelly: 0.8% | ev: +$0.33/u | score: 58/100 Data source: sportsbetform.com.au