Cranbourne R1 | 1500m CL2
Thu 30 Jan | 6:15pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
NO BET - No value identified. Market odds shorter than fair value across the field. Maiden/Class 2 race with limited form reliability.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vieux Riche | $3.50 | 40.1 | 23% | -19.5% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Animal | $3.70 | 38.0 | 22% | -18.6% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Lisa Lass | $4.80 | 38.6 | 17% | -18.4% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Costa Paros | $5.00 | 34.0 | 16% | -20.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Vallo | $6.50 | 32.0 | 13% | -15.5% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Stormy Romance | $16.00 | 22.0 | 6% | -4.0% | PASS | - |
| 2 | City Wok | $19.00 | 18.0 | 5% | -5.0% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Rockin’ Dee Fox | $126.00 | 8.0 | 1% | +26.0% | PASS | - |
Scratched: #3 I Am Titan, #8 Fiery Reign
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited reliable speed figures - maiden/CL2 field with inconsistent form. Vieux Riche ran 84.88s over 1400m at Pakenham (3rd); Lisa Lass ran 84.24s over 1400m at Cranbourne (2nd).
Pace: MODERATE shape expected. No confirmed leaders - Vallo (bar 1) and Costa Paros likely to press forward from good draws. Lisa Lass typically settles back and finishes on.
Class: All runners are maidens or CL2 level. Lisa Lass has the highest average prize ($5,234) and best place strike rate (80%). Vieux Riche debuted with a creditable 3rd.
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW - neutral expected on Good 4. Rail position not specified. Weather showing rain which may impact late in meeting.
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Places | C/D | Going | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vieux Riche | 3 | $3.50 | 3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 Good | Debut 3rd, strong J/T, short price |
| 1 | Animal | 6 | $3.70 | 8x522 | 3/6 | 0/3 C | 3/5 Good | Two 2nds, step up to 1500m |
| 9 | Lisa Lass | 4 | $4.80 | 2242x2 | 4/5 | 0/1 C | 3/3 Hvy | Place specialist 80%, never won |
| 5 | Costa Paros | 9 | $5.00 | 734 | 1/3 | 0/1 C | 1/2 Good | Hayes stable, wide draw concern |
| 7 | Vallo | 1 | $6.50 | 4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 Good | One start, inside draw advantage |
| 6 | Stormy Romance | 8 | $16.00 | 56 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 Good | Limited ability shown |
| 2 | City Wok | 2 | $19.00 | 6465 | 0/5 | 0/1 D | 0/3 Good | No placings, 5yo still a maiden |
| 4 | Rockin’ Dee Fox | 10 | $126.00 | 468x | 0/3 | 0/1 D | 0/1 Good | 447 days since last race |
CONTENDER PROFILES
#10 VIEUX RICHE ($3.50) - Market favourite off a single career start (3rd at Pakenham 1400m, 0.75L margin). Shane Jackson stable has a good strike rate with first-starters. Good barrier (3) and experienced jockey Shane Foley aboard. Risk: Only one run, untested at 1500m, short price leaves no margin for error.
#1 ANIMAL ($3.70) - Most experienced of the contenders with 6 starts. Two runner-up finishes including 2nd at this track last start over 1600m. Stepping back to 1500m suits. Career place rate 50%. Risk: Never won, barrier 6 neutral, form not progressing.
#9 LISA LASS ($4.80) - Outstanding place record (4 placings from 5 starts, 80% place rate). Strong place specialist score of 1.96. Consistent performer who keeps finding the frame. Aaron Purcell stable in form. Risk: Cannot win - four career 2nds suggests lacks finishing punch. Heavy track form (3/3 places) may not transfer to Good going.
#5 COSTA PAROS ($5.00) - Ben/Will/JD Hayes stable typically performs well with maidens. Ran 4th at this track last start. 3yo with upside. Risk: Wide barrier (9) problematic, only 33% place rate.
#7 VALLO ($6.50) - Best barrier draw (1). Ran 4th on debut at Pakenham 1400m. Only one start so limited form analysis possible. Risk: Inexperienced, unknown quantity.
PLACE SPECIALIST ANALYSIS
Lisa Lass (#9) scores 1.96 on the place specialist index (STRONG classification):
- Actual place rate: 80%
- Expected place rate: 40.8%
- 4 placings from 5 starts
However, place odds of $1.62 provide only -4.8% EV on place component. Combined EW EV is -11.6%. Despite the specialist profile, the market has priced this accurately.
KEY RISKS
- Maiden field unreliability - All runners are maidens or CL2 performers with limited form to assess
- Market efficiency - No positive edge identified; odds reflect or exceed true probabilities
- Weather impact - Rain forecast may change track conditions during meeting
MARKET ANALYSIS
- Market percentage: 124.1% (overround favours bookmaker)
- Favourite implied probability: 28.6% vs assessed 23%
- No value overlays identified
- Tightest margin: Vallo at -15.5% edge (still negative)
no selection | market efficient | data: sportsbetform.com.au