Cranbourne R5 | 1000m BM56
Thu 30 Jan | 8:15pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 TOOKAY PETE @ $13.00 - 1.0u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tookay Pete | $13.00 | 65 | 12% | +56% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.17% |
| 2 | Commands Success | $5.50 | 48 | 18% | -1% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Fully Calculated | $5.50 | 45 | 16% | -12% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Educated | $1.65 | 38 | 40% | -34% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Regal Secret | $8.00 | 35 | 6% | -52% | PASS | - |
| 7 | Cool Charlie | $51.00 | 30 | 3% | - | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Form: Tookay Pete in career-best form with back-to-back wins at this track/distance, the only horse proven at Cranbourne 1000m. Pace: MODERATE shape expected - Auckland and Commands Success likely to push early, suits Tookay Pete’s stalking style. Class: BM56 suits the in-form Tookay Pete; Educated drops from maiden but 144 days off is significant concern. Bias: Neutral bias, no significant style or barrier advantage detected (LOW confidence).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Tookay Pete at $13.00 represents outstanding each-way value. Won at this track/distance just 8 days ago (58.24s) and backed that up with another 1000m win at Yarra Valley 2 weeks prior. Career record of 4 wins and 10 placings from 20 starts (50% place rate) makes the place component highly attractive. The market has gravitated heavily to Educated ($1.65) but that filly has just one start (144 days ago over 1100m) and has never raced at 1000m - a significant unknown at prohibitive odds.
KEY RISKS
- Wide barrier (7) may cost ground early
- Weight of money on Educated - if the market is right, we lose
EW VALUE PATH
Path A Qualified: Odds $13.00 >= $6, EW EV +50%, Place prob 36% >= 30%
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Win EV | +56% |
| Place EV | +44% |
| Combined EW EV | +50% |
| Place Odds | $2.60 |
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Pace | C/D | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tookay Pete | 7 | $13.00 | 87211 | MID | 1:1 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Commands Success | 1 | $5.50 | 56x272 | ON | 0:0 | WATCH |
| 3 | Auckland | 6 | $41.00 | 115467 | ON | 0:1 | PASS |
| 5 | Frose | 8 | $41.00 | 8x2215 | MID | 0:0 | PASS |
| 6 | Fully Calculated | 4 | $5.50 | x7363 | MID | 0:2 | WATCH |
| 7 | Cool Charlie | 3 | $51.00 | 234x18 | BACK | 0:0 | PASS |
| 8 | Regal Secret | 5 | $8.00 | 748x94 | BACK | 0:0 | PASS |
| 9 | Educated | 2 | $1.65 | 1x | ? | 0:0 | PASS |
4. Machinist - SCRATCHED
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market percentage: 124% (standard country meeting)
The market has installed Educated as a $1.65 favorite despite:
- Only 1 career start (won maiden at Tatura 1100m)
- 144 days since last race
- Never raced at 1000m sprint distance
- Stepping into BM56 grade
This creates value in the proven performers, particularly Tookay Pete who has demonstrated current form at today’s exact track/distance.
kelly: 1.17% | ev: +$0.50/u | score: 65/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au