Caulfield R10 | 1400m BM84
Fri 31 Jan | 5:40pm | 15r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #12 SUPERNIMA @ $11.00 - 0.9u EW EW_VALUE: #6 ZOUPER FUND @ $12.00 - 0.7u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Stealth Of Night | 2 | 2.50 | 35% | -12% | 84% | WATCH | - |
| 9 | Porter | 16 | 7.50 | 12% | -10% | 31% | PASS | - |
| 12 | Supernima | 14 | 11.00 | 10% | +10% | 28% | VALUE | 0.9% |
| 6 | Zouper Fund | 6 | 12.00 | 9% | +8% | 28% | EW_VALUE | 0.7% |
| 1 | Harry’s Yacht | 8 | 12.00 | 8% | -4% | 22% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Dirty Grin | 15 | 11.00 | 8% | +10% | 25% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Form: Stealth Of Night (16) is the standout with 4 wins from 6 starts (67%) including back-to-back BM70 wins at Sandown. Rises in class significantly. Supernima (12) won last start at Flemington BM84 over this trip - proven at level. Zouper Fund (6) has exceptional 63% win rate from 8 starts, though untested at 1400m.
Class: This is a step up for the favourite from BM70 to BM84. Supernima already proven at BM84 level with a last-start win. Zouper Fund rises from BM74 but has beaten useful horses.
Distance: Stealth Of Night has 3 wins from 3 starts at 1400m - key positive. Supernima 1 win from 8 at trip (untried here). Zouper Fund untested at 1400m - query.
Bias: Track bias LOW confidence - assume neutral. Rail position not specified.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Supernima offers value at $11 after winning BM84 at Flemington last start. Peter Moody/Katherine Coleman runners in good form, Michael Dee retains the ride. Strong place consistency (67% career) makes EW attractive. Wide barrier (14) manageable in 15-runner field with rain forecast potentially aiding those off the speed.
Zouper Fund at $12 represents speculative EW value. Exceptional 88% place rate from 8 starts shows remarkable consistency. First try at 1400m is the query, but Ciaron Maher runners handle distance rises well. Good barrier (6) an advantage.
Stealth Of Night is the class horse but $2.50 offers no value for a BM70 graduate facing a significant class rise. Market has overreacted to impressive form at lower level.
KEY RISKS
- Stealth Of Night may simply be too good despite class rise - first metro BM84 test
- Rain forecast - Good 4 may deteriorate; Zouper Fund untested on wet, Supernima handles soft
- Supernima barrier 14 requires luck in running
- Zouper Fund untested at 1400m
PLACE SPECIALISTS
| Horse | Place Rate | Expected | Specialist Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zouper Fund | 87.5% | 18.9% | 4.63 (STRONG) |
| Supernima | 66.7% | 21.0% | 3.18 (STRONG) |
| Porter | 61.5% | 25.2% | 2.44 (STRONG) |
kelly: 1.6% total | ev: +9.9% avg | tier: VALUE/EW_VALUE
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/caulfield_race_10.md