Caulfield R2 | 1000m BM66
Fri 31 Jan | 12:50pm | 11r | Good 4 | Rain forecast
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #11 RHIA @ $6.00 - 1.0u EW VALUE: #12 DU CLISSON @ $5.00 - 0.6u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rhia | 2 | 6.00 | 20% | +20.0% | 55.8% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.0u |
| 12 | Du Clisson | 6 | 5.00 | 22% | +10.0% | 62.8% | VALUE | 0.6u |
| 7 | Runlikenencryption | 5 | 4.20 | 18% | -24.4% | 50.3% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Jennyanydots | 1 | 5.50 | 15% | -17.5% | 46.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Castellar | 11 | 6.50 | 12% | -22.0% | 36.8% | PASS | - |
| 1 | Martial Music | 9 | 11.00 | 8% | -12.0% | 29.5% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Du Clisson posted 57.36s at Warrnambool (2.75L win) - fastest recent figure in field. Rhia’s 58.39s adequate at this level.
Pace: MODERATE shape expected. Jennyanydots (#5, barrier 1) likely leads. Rhia and Du Clisson both race on-pace to midfield - ideal for anticipated scenario.
Class: Both selections up to BM66 after recent wins. Du Clisson won BM66 last start by 2.75L. Rhia won BM62 - slight class rise but form compelling.
Bias: Track bias LOW confidence (no recent data). Assumed neutral - inside barriers (1-6) marginal advantage at Caulfield 1000m.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#11 RHIA (A&S Freedman / L Currie): Elite connections with 43% win rate (3/7). Perfect 2/2 at 1000m. Won last start BM62 by 1.25L at Seymour (65.45s). Barrier 2 ideal for Caulfield straight course. 71% place rate suggests excellent EW proposition at $6.00 (+20% edge). The only concern is class rise from BM62 to BM66 but Freedman stable targets races well.
#12 DU CLISSON (T Dabernig / J Weatherley): Runaway last-start winner at BM66 level (2.75L margin, 57.36s). Has won 3/5 at 1000m with margins of 2.75L, 3L, 1.75L - clearly superior at this trip. 78% place rate (7/9 career). Barrier 6 acceptable. The +10% edge offers value, though less than Rhia.
PASS on Runlikenencryption (#7): Favorite at $4.20 but -24% underlay. Finished 4th last start at Flemington (58.71s). Better record on Good tracks (3/5) but price too short relative to assessed probability (18%).
KEY RISKS
- Rhia: First Caulfield start - untested on course. Class rise from BM62.
- Du Clisson: Provincial-track form may not translate to metro. Trainer Dabernig 12% metro win rate.
- Weather: Rain forecast - track may deteriorate. Both selections prefer Good ground.
MARKET WATCH
- Runlikenencryption $4.20 FAV is clear underlay (-24% edge)
- Expert tips split across 4 horses (25% each: #2, #7, #11, #12)
- Market % 125.4% indicates strong book
rhia kelly: 1.0% | ev: +22.8% | score: 68.5/100 du_clisson kelly: 0.6% | ev: +17.8% | score: 62.0/100 data: sportsbetform.com.au | bias: neutral (LOW conf)