Caulfield R7 | 1200m BM78
Fri 31 Jan | 3:45pm | 11r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #2 PROVED @ $10 - 1.4u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Proved | 10.00 | 58 | 15% | +50% | VALUE | 1.4% |
| 4 | Aviatress | 4.50 | 52 | 22% | -1% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | A Little Deep | 5.00 | 48 | 18% | -10% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Damask Rose | 5.50 | 45 | 16% | -12% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Samangu | 8.50 | 44 | 12% | -15% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Bossy Benita | 11.00 | 42 | 10% | +10% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Form: Proved is the standout progressive type - 6 wins from 8 starts (75%) with a perfect 4/4 at 1200m. His Caulfield win on 15/11 (70.17s) is the best speed figure in this field.
Pace: MODERATE expected. Aviatress and Samangu likely to be prominent. Proved has tactical speed to sit handy.
Class: All runners competitive at BM78 level. Damask Rose dropping from Group company but form has been ordinary.
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW - assume neutral. Rail position not specified.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Proved represents genuine each-way value at $10. His lightly-raced profile (8 starts) suggests upside remains, and his perfect 1200m record (4/4) is compelling. The 48-day break is a concern, but he trialled adequately (4th in jump-out on 26/1). His only poor run came on soft/heavy going at Pakenham - today’s Good 4 surface suits.
The market favours Aviatress ($4.50) who has solid claims with 2 Caulfield wins, but her price offers no edge. Proved’s EW value (45.7% EV) makes him the clear betting proposition.
KEY RISKS
- Fitness query: 48 days since last race start, relying on one jump-out
- Wet track threat: Rain forecast - Proved is 0/1 on soft, monitor conditions
- Field strength: Aviatress and A Little Deep are proven metro performers
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | C/D | Going | Pace | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wrote To Arataki | 2 | 23 | 32x6x | 1/8, 1/7 | G:3/15 | MID | 32 |
| 2 | Proved | 4 | 10 | 11x51 | 1/1, 4/4 | G:6/7 | ON | 58 |
| 3 | Damask Rose | 1 | 5.5 | x5760 | 0/3, 1/4 | S:3/5 | MID | 45 |
| 4 | Aviatress | 3 | 4.5 | x3213 | 2/5, 3/10 | G:5/15 | ON | 52 |
| 5 | Samangu | 8 | 8.5 | 311x6 | 2/2, 2/3 | G:5/8 | ON | 44 |
| 6 | Miss Aria | 11 | 15 | 9x485 | 1/8, 1/5 | G:3/17 | MID | 35 |
| 7 | A Little Deep | 5 | 5 | 146x8 | 1/4, 1/7 | G:4/14 | MID | 48 |
| 8 | Cigar Flick | 6 | 11 | 717x4 | 0/1, 1/11 | H:2/4 | MID | 38 |
| 9 | Eternal Flame | 7 | 101 | 6xx | 1/4, 1/5 | G:5/16 | MID | 25 |
| 10 | Hearcomesthestar | 9 | 12 | 6x132 | 1/4, 1/10 | G:4/14 | MID | 40 |
| 11 | Bossy Benita | 10 | 11 | x121x | 1/3, 1/4 | G:2/7 | ON | 42 |
Form key: Last 5 starts (most recent first). C/D = Course wins/starts, Distance wins/starts
EXPERT CONSENSUS
Sources checked: 1
- #4 Aviatress: 1 mention
- #3 Damask Rose: 1 mention
- #2 Proved: 1 mention
- #7 A Little Deep: 1 mention
No clear consensus - field is open.
kelly: 1.4% | ev: +45.7% (EW) | score: 58/100
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/caulfield_race_7.md