Eagle Farm R10 | 1200m BM65
Fri 31 Jan | 6:48pm | 11r | Soft 5
ACTION
EW VALUE: #2 INVAHIR @ $13.00 - 1.5u E/W
No Best Bet identified - True Amor (#11) is short at $2.10 with no value edge.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | EW EV | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | True Amor | 2 | 2.10 | 32% | 85% | -26% | - | FAV |
| 2 | Invahir | 9 | 13.00 | 10% | 31% | +30% | +29% | EW VALUE |
| 8 | Gospel Girl | 7 | 8.00 | 12% | 35% | -4% | -2% | WATCH |
| 14 | Amuseantes | 11 | 8.00 | 10% | 37% | -20% | -12% | WATCH |
| 7 | Press Link | 6 | 8.50 | 11% | 36% | -6% | -2% | WATCH |
| 1 | Sir Carter | 4 | 11.00 | 9% | 28% | -1% | -2% | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Form | Soft | C/D | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | True Amor | 2 | 58 | M Harley | 25x122 | 1-3 | 0-0/9-3 | 75 |
| 2 | Invahir | 9 | 61 | O Webb | x5131x | 3-5 | 0-0/10-3 | 62 |
| 8 | Gospel Girl | 7 | 58.5 | E Lang | 3112x7 | 3-6 | 2-3/11-4 | 58 |
| 14 | Amuseantes | 11 | 55.5 | D Moor | 15x127 | 1-3 | 1-2/5-2 | 55 |
| 7 | Press Link | 6 | 59 | V Duric | 35x8x | 1-3 | 1-3/3-2 | 52 |
| 1 | Sir Carter | 4 | 61.5 | R Thorburn | 548x11 | 3-7 | 0-4/13-1 | 48 |
| 5 | Flying Destiny | 3 | 60 | J Franklin | 267x6x | 2-8 | 0-1/14-3 | 45 |
| 4 | Tonneofgrit | 1 | 60.5 | J Williams | 337x7x | 3-6 | 0-1/6-1 | 44 |
| 6 | Letmeletgo | 10 | 59 | R Wiggins | 64x42 | 4-13 | 0-1/15-4 | 40 |
| 10 | Kodiak | 5 | 58 | D Thornton | 6172x2 | 1-4 | 0-5/8-1 | 38 |
| 3 | Shihab | 8 | 60.5 | C Sutherland | x4498 | 4-5 | 1-2/7-2 | 35 |
Scratchings: #9 Mean Approach, #12 Amore Veloce, #13 Big Boy George, #15 Meldubious
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited recent 1200m speed figures available. True Amor’s 70.18 at Beaumont (BM64 win) sets class benchmark.
Pace: MODERATE expected. Sir Carter (#1) and Invahir (#2) likely to contest early. True Amor can stalk from barrier 2.
Class: BM65 - True Amor dropping from CL4 level wins is the class act. Invahir competitive at OPEN level country.
Bias: Track bias unknown - no adjustment applied. Soft 5 conditions suit Invahir (3 wins from 8 soft track starts, 38%).
SELECTION RATIONALE
Invahir (#2) qualifies as EW VALUE via Path A (Value Overlay) and Path B (Place Specialist):
- Place specialist score: 2.875 (STRONG) - career 69% place rate vs 24% expected
- 31% place probability with $13 win odds = +29% EW expected value
- Proven soft track performer (3/8 wins, 5/8 places on soft)
- Won last start at Warwick by 2.6L, placed 3rd in BM78 at Doomben 14/01
- Trainer Pat Webster has stable in form
True Amor (#11) is the most likely winner but offers no value at $2.10:
- Implied 48% vs estimated 32% win probability = -26% edge (UNDERLAY)
- Recent 2nd at Gold Coast beaten 0.02L shows ability
- First run in QLD but Munce stable well-credentialed
- Barrier 2 ideal for soft track, can sit and sprint
KEY RISKS
- Invahir: Wide barrier 9 will need luck from midfield; rises in class from country level
- True Amor: First QLD start; short price offers no protection if beaten
MARKET WATCH
True Amor has been heavily supported ($2.10 clear favorite). If drifts beyond $2.80, may present value. Invahir at $13+ remains the value play.
EW VALUE: #2 INVAHIR @ $13.00 | ew_ev: +29% | score: 80/100 Source: sportsbetform.com.au