Morphettville R11 | 1200m BM76
Fri 31 Jan | 6:00pm | 16r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #10 THUNDER SHOC @ $7.00 - 0.8u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Angel Torque | 17 | $5.50 | 18% | -1.0% | 42% | WATCH |
| 10 | Thunder Shoc | 19 | $7.00 | 15% | +5.0% | 38% | VALUE |
| 1 | Vexatious Dancer | 10 | $7.00 | 14% | -2.0% | 34% | WATCH |
| 6 | Clarence | 1 | $8.00 | 12% | -4.0% | 30% | WATCH |
| 11 | Star Sirius | 6 | $10.00 | 10% | -2.0% | 28% | PASS |
| 14 | Shadow Eagle | 16 | $11.00 | 9% | -1.0% | 26% | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Odds | Form | C/D | Placing% | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vexatious Dancer | 10 | 61.0 | $7 | 6-9-1-1-6-6 | 3/13, 4/10 | 45% | 37.0 |
| 2 | The Stalker | 7 | 60.5 | $12 | 4-x-4-7-1-4 | 0/4, 2/11 | 38% | 32.5 |
| 3 | Three Rings | 20 | 60.5 | $23 | 5-6-2-x-1 | 0/9, 3/19 | 46% | 28.0 |
| 4 | Zebella | 3 | 60.0 | $12 | 6-x-2-6-2-5 | 2/8, 3/16 | 57% | 35.0 |
| 5 | Howl | 13 | 59.5 | $27 | 8-x-6-3-4-3 | 4/19, 1/5 | 40% | 26.0 |
| 6 | Clarence | 1 | 59.0 | $8 | 6-4-3-4-2 | 2/11, 1/12 | 57% | 38.5 |
| 7 | Tannenburg | 14 | 59.0 | $51 | 2-3-1-x | 0/0, 1/3 | 47% | 24.0 |
| 8 | Burning Bright | 4 | 58.5 | $27 | 2-2-1-1-3-x | 0/12, 0/5 | 57% | 30.0 |
| 9 | Shisuta Bo | 5 | 58.5 | $15 | 1-2-4-3-1-8 | 0/3, 3/8 | 50% | 34.0 |
| 10 | Thunder Shoc | 19 | 58.5 | $7 | 1-5-1-5-3-1 | 2/7, 1/2 | 62% | 42.7 |
| 11 | Star Sirius | 6 | 58.0 | $10 | 6-8-3-5-x | 1/5, 3/13 | 50% | 33.0 |
| 12 | Voltage Point | 11 | 58.0 | $34 | 7-5-6-5-x | 4/12, 5/18 | 32% | 25.0 |
| 13 | Angel Torque | 17 | 57.5 | $5.50 | 1-5-3-1-2-3 | 0/2, 2/11 | 50% | 37.0 |
| 14 | Shadow Eagle | 16 | 57.0 | $11 | 3-1-4-4-2 | 2/9, 1/5 | 53% | 35.5 |
| 15 | High On Sugar | 2 | 56.5 | $15 | 8-6-2-x-9-1 | 0/5, 1/9 | 50% | 31.0 |
| 18 | Outpost | 8 | 55.5 | $27 | 5-3-4-9-1-3 | 5/31, 6/30 | 33% | 28.0 |
Scratched: 16 Longtimedreaming, 17 Startide, 19 Scandalize, 20 Big Brute
ANALYSIS
Speed: No clear standout on figures - competitive field with several runners posting similar times at this track/distance. Thunder Shoc’s 70.31s (1200m Good) at Morphettville is a solid benchmark.
Pace: CONTESTED scenario likely with multiple speed horses (Vexatious Dancer, Angel Torque, Thunder Shoc) likely to push forward. Wide barriers (17-20) for key chances a concern.
Class: BM76 - all runners appropriately graded. Thunder Shoc rising from BM64 win, progressive profile. Angel Torque has been competitive in similar grade.
Bias: Track bias data LOW confidence - no adjustment applied. Good 4 surface with rain should remain fair.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Thunder Shoc (#10) offers the best value in this race despite the wide draw (barrier 19). The progressive 4yo mare has a 62% place strike rate (8 placings from 13 starts) - a STRONG PLACE SPECIALIST score of 2.18. Last start winner at this track (70.31s), now rising in class but showing the improvement to handle it. Will Clarken stable in form. The $7.00 represents a +5.0% edge on my 15% win probability assessment.
The favorite Angel Torque (#13) has merit with good recent form (1-5-3-1-2-3) but the $5.50 offers no value (-1.0% edge) and wide barrier 17 is concerning in a field with pace.
KEY RISKS
- Wide barriers for top chances (Thunder Shoc 19, Angel Torque 17) - need luck in running
- Rain forecast may alter track conditions during meeting
- Competitive field with no dominant form stand-out
MARKET WATCH
- Angel Torque well supported as $5.50 favorite - tipped by experts
- Thunder Shoc and Vexatious Dancer equal second elect at $7.00
- Clarence ($8.00) draws barrier 1 - each-way danger if settles midfield
score: 42.7/100 | tier: VALUE | edge: +5.0% | specialist: 2.18 Data source: sportsbetform.com.au | Data quality: HIGH
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/morphettville_race_11.md