Morphettville R7 | 2000m BM66
Fri 31 Jan | 3:22pm | 15r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #10 MRS PENNY CRACKER @ $4.60 - 0.5u WIN
Marginal edge detected (+1.2%) on favorite with strong recent form. Small-stake value play only due to first attempt at 2000m and class rise concerns.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mrs Penny Cracker | $4.60 | 22% | +1.2% | 51% | VALUE |
| 1 | Coorong Tycoon | $5.50 | 16% | -12% | 40% | WATCH |
| 15 | Talent Scout | $6.00 | 14% | -16% | 35% | WATCH |
| 16 | Angiemarie | $7.50 | 11% | -18% | 28% | PASS |
| 6 | Garcon Renard | $8.50 | 10% | -15% | 29% | WATCH |
| 5 | Smother | $11.00 | 9% | -1% | 26% | WATCH |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Dist | Going | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mrs Penny Cracker | 9 | $4.60 | 431221 | Rise | 0/0 | Good specialist | FAV Stepping up in trip |
| 1 | Coorong Tycoon | 17 | $5.50 | 41x242 | Suits | 2/3 | Soft pref | Wide barrier concern |
| 15 | Talent Scout | 4 | $6.00 | 318x4 | Rise | 0/1 | OK | McEvoy-trained 3YO |
| 16 | Angiemarie | 5 | $7.50 | 7x164 | Rise | 0/0 | Soft pref | Stokes 3YO, untried at trip |
| 6 | Garcon Renard | 3 | $8.50 | x1744 | Suits | 0/0 | OK | Good barrier, no 2000m form |
| 5 | Smother | 10 | $11.00 | 25x13 | Rise | 0/0 | Good only | First at 2000m |
| 14 | Prince Lucifer | 14 | $23.00 | 43217 | Rise | 0/0 | Good | Won CL1 9 days ago |
| 19 | Thinkingnintynine | 11 | $19.00 | 16233 | Suits | 1/3 | Good | Course form, C/D winner |
| 13 | Greatestofease | 13 | $34.00 | 37221 | Suits | 1/6 | Good | Consistent placer |
| 4 | Lucas the Younger | 12 | $18.00 | 26112 | Suits | 1/4 | All | 10yo veteran |
ANALYSIS
Form: Mrs Penny Cracker (#10) has the strongest recent form with 1-2-2-1-3-4 from last 6, winning at Gawler 1707m on Jan 3. Has never raced beyond 1707m but progressive profile suggests she can handle the trip. Coorong Tycoon (#1) is the proven 2000m performer (2 wins from 3 starts at trip) but wide barrier 17 is a significant negative.
Class: This is a competitive BM66 with several horses rising in class after recent wins. Mrs Penny Cracker steps up after dominating 0-62 grade. Coorong Tycoon has BM66 experience and ran 2nd in this grade at Murray Bridge on Jan 10.
Distance: Major query on many runners first time at 2000m. Coorong Tycoon (#1) has proven 2000m form. Thinkingnintynine (#19) won at Morphettville Parks over 1950m. Most of the shorter-priced runners are stepping up in trip for the first time.
Pace: Moderate tempo expected. Several on-pace types including Garcon Renard (#6) and Kikorangi (#17) should ensure genuine speed. Stalkers and midfield runners favored in this scenario.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Mrs Penny Cracker (#10) rates the marginal value play at $4.60 despite the distance query. Her form line is superior - 4 placings from last 5 starts with 2 wins, and she demolished a 0-62 field at Gawler winning by 2.3L. The step to 2000m is the unknown but her breeding (by Sebring) and racing style suggest she can handle it. Barrier 9 is workable in a large field.
The main danger Coorong Tycoon (#1) has the proven 2000m form but barrier 17 is brutal in a staying race. He needs luck from the wide draw and historically performs better on soft tracks (2 wins from 3 soft starts vs 0 from 3 good).
KEY RISKS
- Mrs Penny Cracker untested beyond 1707m - stamina query at genuine 2000m
- Large field (15 runners) with rain forecast - track could deteriorate
- Coorong Tycoon’s soft track form could come into play if conditions change
MARKET WATCH
- #10 Mrs Penny Cracker: Fair value around $4.55, current $4.60 offers slim edge
- #5 Smother: At $11 approaching fair odds if you rate his maiden win highly
- #1 Coorong Tycoon: Would need $7+ to represent value given barrier
edge: +1.2% | ev: +$0.01/u | score: 52/100 Data source: sportsbetform.com.au