Rosehill R10 | 1200m BM78
Fri 31 Jan | 5:55pm | 13r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #11 ZUMBO @ $9.50 - 1.0u EW
Secondary: #1 Signor Tortoni @ $18 - 0.5u EW (wet track specialist)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Zumbo | 9.50 | 52 | 14% | +33% | VALUE | 1.0% |
| 1 | Signor Tortoni | 18.00 | 44 | 10% | +80% | WATCH | 0.5% |
| 13 | Nepo Baby | 5.50 | 40 | 16% | -1% | PASS | - |
| 4 | Stormland | 6.00 | 42 | 13% | -22% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Sequista | 6.00 | 38 | 13% | -22% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Agarwood | 7.50 | 41 | 13% | -3% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited speed figure data available. Recent 1200m times suggest Signor Tortoni (72.95s heavy) and Zumbo (67.27s soft) have run competitive figures on rain-affected tracks.
Pace: MODERATE expected with multiple on-pacers. Stormland and Signor Tortoni likely to vie for lead. Midfield runners should get clean runs.
Class: BM78 metro - competitive field. Signor Tortoni dropping from open class barrier trials, Zumbo rising from BM72 after solid third (0.63L margin).
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW - neutral assumed. Soft 5 with rain favors proven wet trackers.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#11 ZUMBO offers the best value at $9.50. Strong wet track credentials (2w/4p from 4 starts on soft/heavy), proven at metro level with runner-up to Oxenham in Highway and showed fight when third at this track 13 days ago. Tommy Berry booking adds confidence. The $9.50 represents +33% edge against a 14% win probability.
#1 SIGNOR TORTONI is the wet track specialist longshot. Outstanding record on affected ground (3w/7p from 7 starts on soft/heavy) with recent easy trial win at 1050m Randwick. The wide barrier (14) is a concern but his explosive speed can overcome it. At $18, the +80% edge on a 10% win probability warrants a small EW play.
KEY RISKS
- Zumbo: Stepping up from provincial/Highway class; untested at 1200m Rosehill
- Signor Tortoni: Wide barrier 14, first run in 34 days, must handle metro BM78
MARKET FAVORITE ASSESSMENT
#13 Nepo Baby ($5.50 fav) - 2-from-2 but both wins at provincial level (Scone, Hawkesbury). First metro Saturday start, first run in 127 days, no soft/heavy form. Class rise + fitness query = PASS despite obvious ability.
WET TRACK FORM SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Soft/Heavy Record | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Signor Tortoni | 3w/7p from 7 | ELITE |
| 11 | Zumbo | 2w/4p from 4 | PROVEN |
| 4 | Stormland | 2w/4p from 5 | PROVEN |
| 8 | Agarwood | 2w/2p from 3 | PROVEN |
| 3 | Eagle Express | 1w/4p from 6 | HANDLES |
| 13 | Nepo Baby | 0w/0p from 0 | UNTESTED |
kelly: 1.0% (primary) + 0.5% (secondary) | ev: +24.9% (EW) | score: 52/100
Data source: sportsbetform.com.au