Rosehill R2 | 1350m BM72
Fri 31 Jan | 1:10pm | 12r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #5 ICEMAN @ $10.00 - 0.9u EW
Secondary: #9 KYEEMA @ $11.00 - 0.5u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Iceman | 9 | $10.00 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.89% |
| 9 | Kyeema | 3 | $11.00 | 10% | +10.0% | VALUE | 0.50% |
| 3 | Cryptonic | 1 | $7.00 | 14% | -2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 13 | Attractiveness | 4 | $3.10 | 20% | -38.0% | PASS | - |
| 2 | Alabama State | 13 | $3.80 | 15% | -43.0% | PASS | - |
| 12 | Hazel Jean | 5 | $13.00 | 8% | +4.0% | WATCH | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited speed data available. Form-based assessment favors experienced gallopers over short-priced debutante on wet ground.
Pace: MODERATE expected. Danish Prince and Cryptonic likely to press forward from inside barriers. Iceman versatile mid-field runner can position well.
Class: BM72 metro. Attractiveness making significant class rise from provincial maiden with zero soft track experience. Iceman and Kyeema proven at level.
Bias: Track bias LOW confidence - no adjustment applied. Soft 5 with Rain favors proven wet-trackers.
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Soft | Heavy | C/D | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Attractiveness | 4 | $3.10 | 4-1-2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 42 | PASS |
| 2 | Alabama State | 13 | $3.80 | 2-8-4-3-4 | 0/5 | 0/1 | 1/8 | 38 | PASS |
| 3 | Cryptonic | 1 | $7.00 | x-2-8-1-1 | 2/5 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 55 | WATCH |
| 5 | Iceman | 9 | $10.00 | 2-2-1-5-1 | 1/9 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 58 | VALUE |
| 9 | Kyeema | 3 | $11.00 | 2-6-7-x-2 | 2/10 | 0/2 | 0/3 | 52 | VALUE |
| 12 | Hazel Jean | 5 | $13.00 | 2-3-x-7-7 | 0/7 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 45 | WATCH |
| 6 | Danish Prince | 7 | $16.00 | 2-4-x-1-2 | 2/20 | 1/13 | 2/24 | 44 | WATCH |
| 8 | Close Encounter | 11 | $20.00 | 2-5-x-4-1 | 3/12 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 40 | PASS |
| 7 | Tenderize | 8 | $20.00 | 5-8-x-6 | 1/11 | 1/6 | 1/8 | 38 | PASS |
| 10 | Justela | 2 | $23.00 | 8-x-5-6 | 2/16 | 1/6 | 1/9 | 36 | PASS |
| 4 | Glounthaune | 12 | $35.00 | x-8-9-7-7 | 2/16 | 0/2 | 0/5 | 32 | PASS |
| 11 | Sizzler | 6 | $81.00 | 6-x-8-9 | 1/8 | 1/5 | 0/2 | 28 | PASS |
SELECTION RATIONALE
#5 ICEMAN is the standout wet-tracker in this field. His Heavy form is exceptional (1 win, 5 places from 6 Heavy starts) and he handles Soft (1/9, 3pl). First-up after 132 days but trialled well, and Nash Rawiller engagement is positive. The $10 price offers genuine value against a short-priced favorite (#13 Attractiveness) with zero wet form being tested on a Soft 5 with Rain forecast. Iceman’s proven BM72 form at 1400-1600m suggests the 1350m is within scope.
#9 KYEEMA offers secondary value at $11. Proven on Soft (2/10, 4pl) with a low draw (barrier 3) and Regan Bayliss up. Won a BM64 on Soft at Kensington and placed at BM72 level. Consistent enough to place in this.
KEY RISKS
- Iceman - First-up after 132 days; needs to be race-fit despite trial
- Attractiveness - If track improves significantly, the favorite becomes more dangerous
- Cryptonic (Barrier 1, Tommy Berry) - Could sneak a place at $7 if pace suits
MARKET ASSESSMENT
The favorite #13 ATTRACTIVENESS is a calculated risk by the market. While she has quality (33% win rate, Richard Freedman trained), this is a significant class rise from provincial maiden grade AND her first test on Soft. All 3 career runs on Good tracks. At $3.10 (implied 32%), she needs to be closer to 40%+ to represent value given the conditions risk. STRONG UNDERLAY.
#2 ALABAMA STATE has James McDonald but wide barrier (13) and poor Soft form (0/5) makes $3.80 too short.
kelly: 1.4% total | ev: +$0.15/u | score: 58.5/100 wet track premium applied | favorite untested on soft
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/rosehill_race_2.md