Rosehill R4 | 1100m Maiden
Fri 31 Jan | 2:20pm | 10r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #6 CHILLY GIRL @ $7.50 - 1.5u E/W
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chilly Girl | 7.50 | 61.1 | 15% | +12.5% | VALUE | 1.5u EW |
| 9 | Miss Scandal | 2.35 | 37.0 | 18% | -57.7% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Miss Chanel | 6.50 | 35.8 | 12% | -22.0% | WATCH | - |
| 2 | Hardanger | 5.00 | 33.1 | 14% | -30.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Pearl Of Dubai | 9.00 | 21.0 | 10% | -28.0% | PASS | - |
| 10 | Oregon Coast | 11.00 | 20.0 | 8% | -23.0% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Form: Chilly Girl won impressively on debut (900m Rosehill, Soft), recording 55.28s - the fastest time in the field at the trip. She followed up with 2nd of 10 on Good going.
Pace: Moderate tempo expected. Several runners with on-pace profiles. Chilly Girl showed tactical speed from barrier 2, can lead or sit handy.
Class: Maiden 2YO fillies. Most runners lightly raced with limited form exposure. Chilly Girl’s trial form and debut win suggest she’s above average for the grade.
Wet Track: Soft 5 with rain forecast. Chilly Girl won on Soft - proven form on the going. Miss Scandal untested on soft/heavy. Key query on favourite.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Chilly Girl offers genuine each-way value at $7.50. She won her debut on Soft 5 at this track over 900m, defeating Pearl Of Dubai who ran 4th in that race. The step to 1100m suits as a progressing 2YO, and barrier 2 allows Tim Clark to dictate. The favourite Miss Scandal is untested on soft ground and heavily over-bet at $2.35 (fair odds closer to $5.50 based on form). Chilly Girl’s place probability of 46% makes the $2.15 place odds attractive.
EW Value Path A: Odds $7.50 >= $6, EW EV +16.6% >= +5%, Place prob 46% >= 30%
KEY RISKS
- First start at 1100m (stepping up 200m from debut)
- Rain may deteriorate track further - currently Soft 5
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pearl Of Dubai | 3 | 9.00 | 2x | P Snowden | A Adkins |
| 2 | Hardanger | 7 | 5.00 | 3 | M Freedman | T Berry |
| 3 | Miss Chanel | 4 | 6.50 | 3 | Waterhouse/Bott | R Bayliss |
| 4 | Tatiana | 10 | 34.00 | 46 | G Portelli | A Collett |
| 5 | Krasina | 8 | 31.00 | 5 | D Payne | A Morgan |
| 6 | Chilly Girl | 2 | 7.50 | 12 | Ryan/Alexiou | T Clark |
| 7 | Cool Art | 9 | 27.00 | 6 | Archibald | Z Lloyd |
| 8 | Machrihanish | 1 | 46.00 | 74 | R/W Freedman | C Schofield |
| 9 | Miss Scandal | 6 | 2.35 | 32 | C Waller | J McDonald |
| 10 | Oregon Coast | 5 | 11.00 | 1 | Cavanough | J Collett |
MARKET ASSESSMENT
- Favourite: Miss Scandal $2.35 (43% implied) - OVERBET
- Market %: 123.5% (standard overround)
- Value Detected: Chilly Girl offers +12.5% edge at current price
GREEN LIGHTS (Chilly Girl)
- Won on soft track at this course
- Inside barrier (2) with tactical speed
- Top jockey booking (T Clark)
RED FLAGS (Miss Scandal - Favourite)
- No soft track form - untested on the going
- $2.35 implies 43% win prob, form suggests ~18%
score: 61.1/100 | ev: +16.6% EW | tier: VALUE
Data source: sportsbetform.com.au