Rosehill R6 | 1500m BM94
Fri 31 Jan | 3:30pm | 8r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #8 PIPPIE BEACH @ $7.50 - 0.8u EW
Cross Tasman is the clear class leader but offers no value at $1.60 (fair odds $1.92). Pippie Beach presents each-way value with strong wet track credentials.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | EW EV | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cross Tasman | 7 | $1.60 | 52% | -17% | 85% | N/A | WATCH |
| 8 | Pippie Beach | 6 | $7.50 | 14% | +5% | 43% | +8.9% | VALUE |
| 10 | Amplify | 2 | $4.50 | 12% | -46% | 38% | -37% | PASS |
| 2 | Kind Words | 1 | $9.50 | 8% | -24% | 25% | -23% | PASS |
| 3 | Just Party | 8 | $13.00 | 6% | -22% | 20% | -21% | PASS |
| 4 | Cavalier Charles | 3 | $23.00 | 4% | -8% | 19% | N/A | PASS |
| 6 | Flying Trapeze | 4 | $51.00 | 2% | +2% | 12% | N/A | PASS |
| 1 | Cosmic Vega | 9 | $61.00 | 2% | +22% | 8% | N/A | PASS |
Scratchings: #5 Mickey’s Medal, #9 Yoshinobu
ANALYSIS
Form: Cross Tasman (4 wins from 7 starts, 57% SR) dominates on raw ability - won BM78 over 1500m here by 3.26L last start. Progressive 4yo stepping up in grade.
Class: Big class rise for Cross Tasman (BM78 to BM94) but form warrants it. Pippie Beach has run creditable races at BM88-94 level.
Wet Track: Critical factor on Soft 5. Pippie Beach has outstanding wet form (3 wins, 4 places from 4 heavy track starts - 75% win rate on heavy). Cross Tasman only 1 start on heavy (3rd), but 2 from 3 on soft.
Barrier: Cross Tasman draws 7 (mid), Pippie Beach draws 6 (ideal). Amplify draws 2 but has 0 wins from 3 soft track starts - concerning.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Pippie Beach (#8) offers genuine each-way value at $7.50. The Chris Waller-trained mare has exceptional wet track credentials (75% on heavy, 17% on soft with 67% place rate). She ran 3rd behind Cross Tasman last start, beaten 3.26L in a genuinely-run 1500m on soft. Gets James McDonald (elite booking), draws well in barrier 6, and the $7.50 represents +8.9% EW expected value with 43% place probability.
Cross Tasman deserves favoritism and will likely win, but $1.60 offers 17% negative edge. The risk/reward doesn’t justify a bet.
KEY RISKS
- Cross Tasman may simply be too good regardless of conditions
- Pippie Beach yet to win beyond 1400m (1 start at 1500m for 3rd)
- Rain continuing - track may deteriorate further
FIELD SUMMARY
| # | Horse | Bar | Wgt | Jockey | Trainer | Form | Soft/Hvy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cosmic Vega | 9 | 59.0 | J McMurray | C Maher | 67646x | 4/28 |
| 2 | Kind Words | 1 | 58.5 | D Gibbons | K Lees | x32411 | 0/11 |
| 3 | Just Party | 8 | 58.5 | T Clark | Ryan/Alexiou | x52433 | 0/5 |
| 4 | Cavalier Charles | 3 | 58.0 | A Hyeronimus | M Dale | x4x522 | 4/21 |
| 6 | Flying Trapeze | 4 | 57.5 | A Collett | G Portelli | 4x6 | 1/17 |
| 7 | Cross Tasman | 7 | 56.5 | T Berry | O’Shea/Charlton | 23x111 | 2/4 |
| 8 | Pippie Beach | 6 | 55.5 | J McDonald | C Waller | 31x543 | 4/10 |
| 10 | Amplify | 2 | 52.5 | Z Lloyd | C Maher | 127x1 | 0/4 |
kelly: 0.8% | ev: +$0.09/u | score: 52/100 Data source: sportsbetform.com.au | Generated: 2026-01-30
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/rosehill_race_6.md