Rosehill R9 | 2000m BM78
Fri 31 Jan | 5:20pm | 11r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
EACH-WAY VALUE: #2 CORMAC T @ $8.00 - 1.0u EW
Path B Qualifier: Place Specialist (score 3.44) with 91% career place consistency at these odds.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Place% | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Willie Oppa | 9 | $3.00 | 25% | 71% | -25% | WATCH |
| 5 | Harlow Mist | 2 | $5.00 | 14% | 42% | -25% | PASS |
| 8 | Existential Bob | 11 | $7.50 | 12% | 40% | -10% | WATCH |
| 9 | Placid Pearl | 6 | $7.50 | 12% | 36% | -10% | WATCH |
| 2 | Cormac T | 3 | $8.00 | 10% | 35% | -20% | EW VALUE |
| 12 | Viktor | 10 | $7.50 | 10% | 30% | -25% | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Form | C/D | Going | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tazaral | 5 | 59 | L Beuzelin | x | 0/3 0/5 | 1/11 | PASS |
| 2 | Cormac T | 3 | 58.5 | T Sherry | 268220 | 0/7 1/5 | 2/10 | EW VALUE |
| 3 | Heaven Bound | 13 | 57 | J Ford | 32x171 | 0/1 0/1 | 3/10 | WATCH |
| 4 | Casino Bear | 4 | 57 | W Stanley | 172434 | 0/3 0/8 | 2/14 | WATCH |
| 5 | Harlow Mist | 2 | 56.5 | T Clark | 724991 | 0/3 0/4 | 2/9 | WATCH |
| 7 | Willie Oppa | 9 | 55.5 | J McDonald | x54171 | 0/1 0/1 | 1/4 | WATCH |
| 8 | Existential Bob | 11 | 54.5 | T Berry | 683325 | 0/2 0/2 | 2/2 HVY | WATCH |
| 9 | Placid Pearl | 6 | 54 | A Collett | 543317 | 0/1 1/1 | 1/3 | WATCH |
| 10 | Tokyo Star | 12 | 54 | TBA | 264324 | 0/0 0/0 | 2/9 | PASS |
| 12 | Viktor | 10 | 52.5 | A Jones | 415864 | 0/1 0/0 | 0/4 | PASS |
| 13 | Mediaro | 7 | 52 | R Jones | 911472 | 0/1 0/1 | 1/5 | WATCH |
Scratchings: #6 Akkadian Emperor, #11 Wagga Wagga
ANALYSIS
Form: Willie Oppa (7) comes off dominant 1800m BM72 win at Kensington (2.24L), but first try at 2000m is a query. Existential Bob (8) 2nd in BM78 2000m at Randwick 3/1 - proven at trip. Placid Pearl (9) won same race. Cormac T (2) ultra-consistent placer - 2nd five times from last 10 starts including over 2000m.
Class: BM78 metro. Willie Oppa rising from BM72 win. Existential Bob, Placid Pearl both proven at level. Cormac T placed at BM78 consistently but yet to break through.
Pace: Moderate tempo expected. No confirmed on-pace runners; Casino Bear (4) may roll forward from barrier 4. Willie Oppa likely to settle midfield and be produced late. Soft 5 track may favor on-pacers.
Conditions: Soft 5, rain forecast. Existential Bob has 2 wins from 2 heavy track starts - wet track specialist. Willie Oppa 1/4 soft (limited sample). Cormac T 2/10 soft, handles it. Harlow Mist 2/9 soft - capable.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Cormac T (#2) qualifies as EACH-WAY VALUE via Path B (Place Specialist). Career record of 4 wins, 16 places from 22 starts (73% place rate) is exceptional. The place specialist score of 3.44 indicates he places 3.4x more than expected given his win rate. Has been runner-up in five of last ten starts including over 2000m at Rosehill (124.67s). Barrier 3 is ideal, and while win probability is modest (~10%), place probability of 35% at $2.38 place odds offers marginal value.
The favorite Willie Oppa (#7) is the class act with J McDonald aboard and the Waller factor, but $3.00 is short given he’s untested at 2000m and faces proven stayers.
KEY RISKS
- Cormac T: May lack the turn of foot to win - career suggests he’s a professional placegetter
- Willie Oppa: First time 2000m, unknown if stays; mid-barrier 9 requires cover in small field
- Track conditions: Soft 5 with rain - could deteriorate to heavy, favoring wet-trackers like Existential Bob
EXPERT TIPS
Sources checked: 1
- Cormac T: 1 mention
- Heaven Bound: 1 mention
- Viktor: 1 mention
- Existential Bob: 1 mention
Limited expert consensus - spread across multiple runners.
EW value: Path B (specialist 3.44) | score: 41.4/100 | Cormac T 1.0u EW @ $8.00
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/rosehill_race_9.md