Morphettville R3 | 1100m BM68
Sat 07 Feb | 12:15pm | 9r | Good 4
ACTION
VALUE: #10 MAYSOONFLY @ $4.80 - 1.2u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rathlin Express | 2.45 | 58 | 38% | -6.9% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Maysoonfly | 4.80 | 52 | 22% | +5.6% | VALUE | 1.2% |
| 4 | Summertime Madness | 5.50 | 38 | 12% | -34.0% | PASS | - |
| 8 | Magna Torino | 8.50 | 35 | 12% | +2.0% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Gazz | 9.50 | 32 | 8% | -24.0% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Broke The Seal | 16.00 | 28 | 6% | - | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Form | Career | C/D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | City Pro | 1 | 58 | C Rawiller | 445x | 0/0/4 | 0/0 |
| 2 | Kikkuli | 4 | 58 | C Jones | 7x64x | 0/0/4 | 0/1 |
| 3 | Merchant Of Greece | 10 | 58 | B King | 399x86 | 0/2/10 | 0/2 |
| 4 | Summertime Madness | 9 | 58 | T Pannell | x62 | 0/1/3 | 0/0 |
| 5 | Broke The Seal | 5 | 57 | L Stojakovic | 27x | 0/1/2 | 0/1 |
| 6 | Gazz | 8 | 57 | A Livesey | 28x8x | 0/1/3 | 0/2 |
| 7 | Rathlin Express | 6 | 57 | J Opperman | 453372 | 0/4/7 | 0/1 |
| 8 | Magna Torino | 7 | 56 | K Crowther | (debut) | 0/0/0 | 0/0 |
| 10 | Maysoonfly | 2 | 55 | J Holder | (debut) | 0/0/0 | 0/0 |
#9 Fear The Zou - SCRATCHED
ANALYSIS
Form: Rathlin Express (7) has the most consistent form with 4 placings from 7 starts including 2nd last start at Morphettville over 1200m. The only horse in the field with race experience at this track/distance combo. Maysoonfly (10) showed promise in trials, placing 3rd and 5th in two jumpouts before debut.
Class: BM68 is a moderate benchmark. Most runners are maidens stepping into ratings company for the first time. Rathlin Express has been competitive at this level in Victoria. Gazz (6) ran 8th in a 3YO BM68 at Morphettville previously.
Pace: Moderate pace expected. City Pro (1) and Kikkuli (2) have shown early speed in trials. Rathlin Express typically settles midfield and finishes strongly.
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW - neutral assumption applied.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Maysoonfly (#10) represents the value play at $4.80. Debuting filly from the Andrew Gluyas yard with Jason Holder aboard. Showed ability in two trials - 5th at Gawler (1000m) then improved to 3rd at Murray Bridge (1000m) behind Rathlin Express. The inside barrier (2) is advantageous in a 9-horse field. Light weight (55kg) and filly allowance. At $4.80, the +5.6% edge and +7.4% EW EV makes her the value selection over the short-priced favorite.
Rathlin Express (#7) is the class horse but $2.45 offers no value (-6.9% edge). Consistent placer who should be competitive again but needs to break maiden status - 0 wins from 7 starts is a concern at short odds. Philip Stokes trained but drawing barrier 6 mid-field.
KEY RISKS
- Maysoonfly is a debutante - race day temperament unknown
- Rain forecast could impact track (currently Good 4)
- Rathlin Express has the form edge and could finally break through
MARKET NOTES
- Market: 123.4% (standard overround)
- Favorite: #7 Rathlin Express $2.45 (40.8% implied)
- Value identified: #10 Maysoonfly $4.80 (+5.6% edge)
- Expert tips: Split between #10, #7, #6, #8 (1 source)
kelly: 1.2% | ev: +7.4%/u (EW) | score: 52/100 source: sportsbetform.com.au