Randwick R7 | 1100m CL1 2YO
Sat 07 Feb | 12:15pm | 19r | Soft 5
ACTION
VALUE: #13 LONG THROW @ $19.00 - 0.6u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | EW EV | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fireball | $6.00 | 14% | -16% | 37% | -17% | WATCH |
| 2 | Plagiarism | $7.00 | 12% | -16% | 33% | -17% | WATCH |
| 5 | Star Of Jamaica | $8.00 | 10% | -20% | 29% | -20% | PASS |
| 8 | Calamari Ring | $8.50 | 10% | -19% | 28% | -19% | WATCH |
| 14 | Jacaranda | $8.00 | 10% | -20% | 29% | -20% | PASS |
| 18 | Profitabelle | $12.00 | 8% | -4% | 25% | -5% | WATCH |
| 1 | Alibaba | $14.00 | 7% | -2% | 22% | -7% | WATCH |
| 13 | Long Throw | $19.00 | 5.5% | +5% | 20% | +7% | VALUE |
| 9 | Where’s The Circus | $26.00 | 4% | +4% | 16% | +10% | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Limited time data across field. Calamari Ring (60.71s/1000m Flemington Soft) and Where’s The Circus (58.4s/1000m Randwick Soft) show best wet-track times. Fireball’s 65.27s/1100m at Rosehill solid but on Good ground.
Pace: CONTESTED - Multiple on-pace types including Alibaba, Star Of Jamaica, Fireball. Wide draw barrier lottery with 19 runners from barriers 1-22 (gaps from scratchings). Expect early burn-up favouring hold-up horses.
Class: CL1 2YO restricted - mostly lightly-raced juveniles. Calamari Ring won Inglis 2YO ($252K prizemoney) - best class form. Screen Icon 2nd in Gimcrack - stakes experience. Long Throw 2nd Rosehill 2Y HCP - metro class.
Bias: Track bias LOW confidence. Soft 5 conditions - wet track specialists hold edge. Lassified (3:2-0-2 on Soft) and Calamari Ring (1:1-0-0 Soft) have proven wet form.
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | C/D | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fireball | 3 | $6.00 | 1x | 0/0 | 1/1 | J McDonald. 69d spell. Won 1100m Rosehill Good. Barrier suits. |
| 2 | Plagiarism | 10 | $7.00 | 3x | 0/0 | 0/1 | 90d spell. Waterhouse/Bott. 3rd Golden Gift behind quality. |
| 5 | Star Of Jamaica | 5 | $8.00 | 21 | 0/1 | 0/0 | Won Sunshine Coast 1000m by 1.8L. QLD raider, first Sydney. |
| 8 | Calamari Ring | 22 | $8.50 | 1x | 1/1 | 0/0 | Wide barrier kills. Won Inglis 2YO. Maher. Soft track winner. |
| 14 | Jacaranda | 6 | $8.00 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | Won weak Seymour maiden by 5.7L. Field of 3. Class rise. |
| 18 | Profitabelle | 1 | $12.00 | 3 | 0/1 | 0/1 | Inside draw. Bjorn Baker. 3rd debut Randwick. Gate 1 advantage. |
| 1 | Alibaba | 14 | $14.00 | 31 | 0/1 | 0/0 | Won Caulfield 1000m. Victorian. Wide barrier. |
| 11 | Screen Icon | 21 | $13.00 | 2x | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2nd Gimcrack. Quality form. Wide barrier major concern. |
| 13 | Long Throw | 9 | $19.00 | 2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 2nd Rosehill 2Y HCP by 1.3L. Maher. Soft track form. Mid draw. |
| 9 | Where’s The Circus | 2 | $26.00 | 1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | Won Randwick Nursery on Soft. Gate 2. Course winner. Overs? |
SELECTION RATIONALE
Long Throw offers each-way value at $19. Second on debut at Rosehill over 1100m on Soft track (1.3L margin) - relevant form reference for today’s Soft 5 conditions. Ciaron Maher stable having strong juvenile season. Barrier 9 workable in big field. At 5.5% win probability, the $19 offers positive EW expected value (+7.3%). The favourites look underlays - Fireball ($6) off a 69-day spell with no wet track form, Calamari Ring ($8.50) has the class but barrier 22 is nearly impossible to overcome.
Where’s The Circus ($26) is a WATCH at the price - won the Randwick Nursery on Soft, has course and track form, gate 2. Only start but looked professional. If the market drifts, place value emerges.
KEY RISKS
- Big field lottery - 19 runners, wide barriers, Soft track = high variance
- Long Throw one-start form - small sample, beaten 1.3L, class rise
- Favourites may improve - Fireball first-up patterns unknown, Calamari Ring talent could overcome barrier
RED FLAGS
- Fireball: 69-day spell, no wet form, short price
- Calamari Ring: Barrier 22, needs luck
- Jacaranda: Beat field of 3 at Seymour - questionable form reference
- Star Of Jamaica: First Sydney start, QLD form lines unclear
GREEN LIGHTS
- Long Throw: Soft track form, Maher stable, each-way odds
- Where’s The Circus: Course winner on Soft, inside gate
- Profitabelle: Gate 1 advantage, Baker stable
kelly: 0.6% | ev: +$0.07/u | score: 52/100 Data quality: HIGH | Track bias confidence: LOW
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/randwick_race_7.md