Randwick R8 | 1200m BM68
Sat 07 Feb | 12:15pm | 8r | Soft 5
ACTION
NO BET - Favorite Tempted is short odds with no value edge. Soft track concern for key contenders.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tempted | 4 | $1.75 | 48% | -16% | 85% | WATCH |
| 2 | Napoleonic | 2 | $3.70 | 22% | -19% | 59% | WATCH |
| 5 | Wodeton | 3 | $6.00 | 15% | -10% | 43% | WATCH |
| 1 | Rivellino | 7 | $21.00 | 5% | +5% | 16% | PASS |
| 8 | Watson | 6 | $16.00 | 5% | -20% | 18% | PASS |
| 6 | Ruination | 8 | $31.00 | 4% | +24% | 17% | PASS |
| 4 | Memo | 1 | $34.00 | 3% | +2% | 13% | PASS |
| 7 | Dusty Bay | 5 | $126.00 | 1% | +26% | 5% | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Class: Group-class filly Tempted (2nd Everest, 3rd Golden Rose) dropping to BM68 - class standout by 20+ lengths on ratings. Napoleonic won Red Anchor Stakes at Moonee Valley, strong class credentials.
Form: Tempted resumes after 111 days - trialling unknown. Career 4/9 wins, 89% place strike rate elite. Napoleonic last-start winner 27/01 at Randwick (1050m), sharp form.
Wet Track: CRITICAL CONCERN - Tempted 2/2 wins on soft but those were as a 2yo in lesser company. Rivellino 0/2 on soft (no placings). Wodeton 1/3 soft (better record). Watson 0/3 on soft with only 1 place.
Pace: Moderate tempo expected. Napoleonic and Watson likely to press. Tempted versatile but prefers on-pace position.
CONTENDER PROFILES
#3 TEMPTED ($1.75) - The class horse. Everest runner-up, Golden Rose third. Ciaron Maher filly resuming after 111 days. Soft 5 an unknown at this level. 89% career place rate is elite but $1.75 offers no value margin. Chad Schofield aboard. Fair odds $2.08 - UNDERLAY.
#2 NAPOLEONIC ($3.70) - Progressive colt with 3 wins from 6 starts. Won Red Anchor Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley. Last-start winner at Randwick (1050m). Inside barrier ideal. Concern: only 1 soft track start (3rd). Zac Lloyd stays on. Fair odds $4.55 - UNDERLAY.
#5 WODETON ($6.00) - James McDonald booking significant for Waller colt. 2nd Golden Rose, consistent placer (67% place rate). Best soft track record of main chances (1/3, 2 places). 118 days off is concern. Fair odds $6.67 - marginal underlay but closest to value.
KEY RISKS
- Soft 5 track - Rain forecast, could deteriorate further. Favors wet trackers - none of top 3 are proven heavy track performers
- Tempted resuming - 111 days off, no public trial info. Fresh runs unknown
- Small field dynamics - 8 runners, harder to get beaten for minors
MARKET ASSESSMENT
Market has Tempted at 57% implied probability ($1.75). My assessment is 48% true probability based on:
- Class adjustment: +15% (dominant class horse)
- Resuming penalty: -8% (first-up, no trial visible)
- Wet track uncertainty: -5% (unproven at G1 level on soft)
- Barrier/connections: neutral
No value exists at current odds. Each-way EV on Tempted is -7.5%.
VERDICT
PASS - Tempted is the class horse but $1.75 offers no margin. Napoleonic the danger but also no value at $3.70. Wodeton ($6.00) is the most interesting runner - best wet track profile of contenders, elite jockey, but 118-day layoff is concerning.
If Tempted drifts to $2.20+ or Wodeton to $8.00+, reassess. Current market is efficient.
Data source: sportsbetform.com.au | Analysis: 2026-02-06