Doomben R4 | 1650m BM78
Wed 11 Feb | 1:25pm | 7r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #8 TRAPEDO @ $6.50 - 0.77u EW VALUE: #5 MASTER COPY @ $12.00 - 0.45u EW (Place Specialist)
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Place% | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trapedo | $6.50 | 54.9 | 18% | +17.0% | 55.7% | VALUE |
| 5 | Master Copy | $12.00 | 49.5 | 10% | +20.0% | 34.1% | VALUE |
| 2 | Modesty | $3.30 | - | 24% | -20.8% | 73.9% | WATCH |
| 9 | Aratiri | $4.50 | - | 20% | -10.0% | 60.8% | WATCH |
| 4 | Kadall | $4.20 | - | 16% | -32.8% | 52.7% | WATCH |
| 1 | French Endeavour | $5.00 | - | 12% | -40.0% | 37.8% | PASS |
| 6 | Heika | $46.00 | - | 3% | +38.0% | 15.5% | PASS |
FIELD TABLE
| # | Horse | Bar | Wt | Jockey | Form | C:D | Soft | PlcSpec | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | French Endeavour | 6 | 59.5 | B Thompson | 57x69 | 0:1/0:3 | 1/8 | - | PASS |
| 2 | Modesty | 9 | 59.5 | J Franklin | x714x | 0:0/0:2 | 0/0 | - | WATCH |
| 4 | Kadall | 5 | 58.0 | M Harley | 37x26 | 0:8/0:4 | 0/10 | 1.75 | WATCH |
| 5 | Master Copy | 2 | 58.0 | A Mallyon | 132x6 | 0:2/2:9 | 0/8 | 2.18 | VALUE |
| 6 | Heika | 3 | 56.5 | D Turner | 67x6 | 0:3/0:1 | 0/3 | - | PASS |
| 8 | Trapedo | 1 | 54.0 | C Graham | 12582 | 0:7/0:2 | 0/9 | 1.04 | VALUE |
| 9 | Aratiri | 4 | 54.0 | C Baker | x4572 | 0:4/3:9 | 2/12 | - | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No sectional data available. Time-based assessment gives Trapedo best recent figures - won CL1 at Sunshine Coast (84.34s/1400m), 3rd at Doomben CL2 (79.89s/1350m) on soft ground. Pace: MODERATE tempo likely with only 7 runners. Trapedo (bar 1) and Aratiri (bar 4) can sit handy. Small field suits on-pace runners. Class: Aratiri rises sharply from BM65 to BM78 (red flag). Kadall drops from BM85 placings (green light). Modesty won BM78 at Rosehill in Nov 2024 but untested on soft ground. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Soft 5 with rain - genuine wet track. Inside barriers favoured in small field.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Trapedo ($6.50 EW) offers the best value play. Inside draw (bar 1) in a 7-horse field on soft ground is a significant advantage. Coming off a strong 3rd at Doomben in CL2 (beaten 0.15L) and a 2nd at Sunshine Coast BM68, she’s racing in peak form - form reads 1-2-5-8-2-3 with 4 placings from last 6 competitive starts. Rising through the grades but carries just 54kg with a 5.5kg weight advantage over the topweights. EW EV of +24.6% qualifies on Path A.
Master Copy ($12.00 EW) is a dual-path EW qualifier (A+B) with a place specialist score of 2.18 (strong). Proven at the 1650m distance (2 wins from 9 starts), won at BM68 level over 1690m at Ipswich, and placed at BM78 level at Doomben (3rd, beaten 0.32L over 1600m). The concern is 0/8 on soft ground with no wins, but the EW EV of +23.9% and the price compensate for the risk.
KEY RISKS
- Soft track specialist question: Trapedo 0/9 on soft (4 places), Master Copy 0/8 on soft (3 places) - neither has won on the going
- Modesty query: Untested on soft after strong BM78 win at Rosehill - if he handles the ground, he’s the clear class runner
- Aratiri class rise: Won BM65 at Ipswich by 2.86L but jumping 13 points in class - could be found out
EACH-WAY VALUE DETAIL
| Horse | Path | EW EV | Place% | PlcSpec | Place EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trapedo | A | +24.6% | 55.7% | 1.04 | +32.2% | 0.77u |
| Master Copy | A+B | +23.9% | 34.1% | 2.18 | +27.8% | 0.45u |
trapedo: kelly 0.77% | ev: +$0.25/u | score: 54.9/100 master copy: kelly 0.45% | ev: +$0.24/u | score: 49.5/100