Doomben R8 | 1350m BM85
Wed 11 Feb | 1:25pm | 11r | Soft 5 | Rain
ACTION
VALUE: #2 MISTER BIANCO @ $10.00 - 0.56u EW VALUE: #6 GORBACHEV @ $11.00 - 0.25u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mister Bianco | $10.00 | 58 | 12% | +20.0% | VALUE | 0.56% |
| 6 | Gorbachev | $11.00 | 52 | 10% | +10.0% | VALUE | 0.25% |
| 5 | Hermanita | $7.50 | 48 | 13% | -2.5% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Ser Joh | $3.40 | 42 | 23% | -21.8% | WATCH | - |
| 11 | Sultry Siren | $4.00 | 40 | 18% | -28.0% | WATCH | - |
| 4 | Tribeca Star | $5.50 | 35 | 12% | -34.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Wet | C/D | Pace | PlSpec | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zoology | 4 | $21 | 8-6-9 | 1/6 S | 1/5c 1/7d | OK | - | 28 | PASS |
| 2 | Mister Bianco | 6 | $10 | 5-6-1 | 4/9 S | 1/6c 3/10d | GOOD | 2.12 | 58 | VALUE |
| 3 | Ser Joh | 3 | $3.40 | 2-8-2 | 1/9 S | 2/5c 0/2d | GOOD | - | 42 | WATCH |
| 4 | Tribeca Star | 2 | $5.50 | 8-3-7 | 1/6 S | 1/3c 0/7d | OK | 2.12 | 35 | WATCH |
| 5 | Hermanita | 8 | $7.50 | 4-2-11 | 2/12 S | 3/4c 0/1d | GOOD | 2.15 | 48 | WATCH |
| 6 | Gorbachev | 5 | $11 | x-3-1 | 3/6 S 1/1 H | 2/2c 1/3d | GOOD | 2.92 | 52 | VALUE |
| 7 | Mean Approach | 7 | $13 | 5-5-1 | 2/15 S | 0/7c 0/2d | OK | - | 30 | PASS |
| 8 | Treporti | 10 | SCR | - | - | - | - | - | - | SCR |
| 9 | Lady Shotgun | 12 | $51 | 8-16-7 | 1/12 S | 1/6c 4/14d | POOR | - | 18 | PASS |
| 10 | Resurrected | 9 | $34 | 4-6-7 | 5/14 S | 0/1c 2/6d | OK | - | 25 | PASS |
| 11 | Sultry Siren | 1 | $4.00 | 5-4-3 | 1/10 S 1/4 H | 3/8c 1/4d | GOOD | - | 40 | WATCH |
| 12 | Victory Command | 11 | $23 | 5(t)-10-9 | 1/11 S | 0/4c 0/11d | POOR | - | 20 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Ser Joh set strong 82.12s time at 1400m Eagle Farm (Good); Mister Bianco clocked 80.44s over 1350m at Doomben on Soft - best wet track figure in field. Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No dominant leader; Ser Joh and Sultry Siren likely to press forward from inside draws. Suits on-pace runners with mid-race dash. Class: BM85 metro. Gorbachev rising sharply from CL3/BM65 (3 straight wins) - biggest class test. Mister Bianco proven at BM90 level. Ser Joh at CL6 level. Bias: Soft 5 with rain - track likely to deteriorate. No confirmed bias (LOW confidence). Rail position unknown. Wet trackers significantly advantaged.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Mister Bianco is the standout value play. His wet track record (4/9 soft, 44% strike rate) is elite in this field. Won at Gold Coast on soft, ran tight margins at Doomben 1350m soft (3rd by 0.09L). The step up from 1200m last start to 1350m suits his mid-race running style and he’s proven at BM90 level - no class concern. At $10 with +20% edge and 16.7% EW EV, he represents STRONG EW VALUE with place specialist score of 2.12.
Gorbachev is the secondary play as a progressive type who has won 3/6 on soft and 1/1 on heavy. His 2/2 Doomben record is impressive. The concern is a 13th last start at Gold Coast in a large field and this is a significant class rise to BM85 - but his ceiling appears high. At $11 with +10% edge, he’s worth a smaller EW stab.
KEY RISKS
- Mister Bianco: Barrier 6 is manageable but needs luck mid-field; 17 days between runs is fine but hasn’t won beyond 1200m since Jul ‘25 (won 1350m Ipswich)
- Gorbachev: Massive class rise (CL3 → BM85) untested; 31 days since last run; 13th last start raises fitness query
- Ser Joh (fav): Only 1/9 on soft tracks - genuine wet track query at short price; ran 8th of 15 at Gold Coast soft last prep
EACH-WAY VALUE BREAKDOWN
| Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Place Prob | PlSpec | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mister Bianco | +20.0% | +13.4% | +16.7% | 34.9% | 2.12 | STRONG EW VALUE |
| Gorbachev | +10.0% | +8.5% | +9.3% | 31.0% | 2.92 | EW VALUE |
| Hermanita | -2.5% | -0.5% | -1.5% | 37.9% | 2.15 | NO VALUE |
#2 kelly: 0.56% | ew_ev: +16.7% | score: 58/100 #6 kelly: 0.25% | ew_ev: +9.3% | score: 52/100