Gosford R2 | 1100m Maiden Hcp
Wed 11 Feb | 1:25pm | 4r (7 scratched) | Soft 5
ACTION
NO BET - All runners underlays. 127.7% market overround in 4-horse field offers zero value. Maiden debut runners add uncertainty without compensating price.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Written In Wrath | 1.75 | 44.5 | 42% | -26.5% | WATCH | - |
| 6 | Sphere | 3.40 | 44.4 | 26% | -11.6% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Declan | 3.60 | 38.0 | 24% | -13.6% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Olivia Twist | 7.50 | 20.0 | 8% | -40.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Wet | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Written In Wrath | 10 | 1.75 | Debut (trial 1st 4.75L) | 60 | Untested | Hot | 44.5 | WATCH |
| 6 | Sphere | 4 | 3.40 | x-3-2 (placing form) | 60 | 0-0-1/2 | Warm | 44.4 | WATCH |
| 1 | Declan | 7 | 3.60 | 3 (1 start, placed) | 60 | Untested | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 10 | Olivia Twist | 6 | 7.50 | 7-x-8 (no impact) | 60 | Untested | Neutral | 20.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: No reliable speed figures available - maiden field with limited race history. Written In Wrath’s trial win (4.75L at Randwick 1050m) is the standout piece of work but trial-to-race conversion is uncertain. Pace: MODERATE - small field likely produces genuine tempo. Written In Wrath and Declan both showed early speed in trials. Sphere likely settles midfield. Class: All runners at maiden level (60 rating). Written In Wrath debuting for Waterhouse/Bott carries the strongest class perception. Sphere for Waller has the most race experience (3 starts, 2 placings). Bias: Soft 5 with rain - no track bias data available (LOW confidence). Written In Wrath and Declan both untested on soft. Sphere has placed on soft (1 placing from 2 soft starts).
KEY RISKS
- Written In Wrath ($1.75) is far too short for a debutant on an untested surface - trial form doesn’t always translate, especially first-up on Soft 5
- Only 4 runners with 127.7% overround makes finding value virtually impossible - all runners are underlays at current prices
PLACE PROBABILITIES
| # | Horse | Win% | Place% | Place Odds | Place EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Written In Wrath | 42% | 85% | - | - |
| 6 | Sphere | 26% | 69% | 1.88 | +10.4% |
| 1 | Declan | 24% | 68% | 2.00 | +12.2% |
| 10 | Olivia Twist | 8% | 19% | 3.60 | -31.2% |
Note: Place-only EV is positive for Sphere and Declan but not sufficient to warrant EW bets at these win odds.
no bet | market: 127.7% overround | best score: 44.5/100