Canterbury R6 | 1550m BM68
Fri 13 Feb | 8:30pm | 8r (5 scr) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #11 SHANONI @ $7.00 - 1.1u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shanoni | $7.00 | 67.0 | 18% | +26.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.08% |
| 8 | Emballee | $2.50 | 48.0 | 30% | -25.0% | VALUE | - |
| 4 | Oakfield Mamselle | $7.00 | 51.4 | 15% | +5.0% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Pillow Fight | $5.00 | 40.0 | 13% | -35.0% | WATCH | - |
| 1 | Gentileschi | $5.00 | 30.0 | 10% | -50.0% | PASS | - |
| 12 | Fearn Trick | $9.50 | 28.0 | 7% | -33.5% | PASS | - |
| 13 | Luna Angel | $35.00 | 20.0 | 4% | +40.0% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Laspirit Deeler | $46.00 | 15.0 | 3% | +38.0% | PASS | - |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Emballee holds the best recent figures (est. 78) from consistent metro placings; Shanoni and Oakfield Mamselle cluster around 72-75. Pace: MODERATE scenario likely with no confirmed leaders - suits on-pace/stalking types; Shanoni and Emballee both mid-runners who should get a soft lead to chase. Class: Emballee tested at BM72, Shanoni won maiden heavy and placed BM64 metro; Oakfield Mamselle rises from BM64 provincial win; Fearn Trick maiden winner taking massive class jump. Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence), no significant style or barrier advantage detected.
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Going | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Emballee | 6 | $2.50 | 42443 | BM72 | Good: 1/11 | Waller/McDonald | VALUE |
| 11 | Shanoni | 7 | $7.00 | 21328 | BM64 | Heavy: 1/2 | Waller/Berry | STRONG_VALUE |
| 4 | Oakfield Mamselle | 2 | $7.00 | 54515 | BM64 | Good: 4/11 | Lees/Collett | WATCH |
| 3 | Pillow Fight | 3 | $5.00 | 57672 | MDN | Good: 0/4 | Baker/Gibbons | WATCH |
| 1 | Gentileschi | 12 | $5.00 | 52696 | BM78 | Good: 2/9 | Messara/Nock | PASS |
| 12 | Fearn Trick | 9 | $9.50 | 55174 | MDN | Good: 1/2 | Waterhouse/Clark | PASS |
| 13 | Luna Angel | 10 | $35.00 | 18151 | BM58 | Good: 2/23 | Crothers/Martin | PASS |
| 5 | Laspirit Deeler | 8 | $46.00 | 99889 | BM78 | Good: 1/6 | Curtis/Adkins | PASS |
SELECTION RATIONALE
Shanoni represents clear each-way value at $7.00. The Tommy Berry booking for Waller is a significant positive - Berry is one of Sydney’s elite riders and this booking signals stable confidence. Shanoni placed 2nd at Kensington over 1550m (the same distance) last start and won impressively at 1500m on heavy ground. The 4-length margin that day suggests the race was run slowly, but the horse was dominant. Second-up from a solid first-up placing (3rd Gosford 1200m) is a strong pattern. The moderate pace scenario should allow Berry to settle midfield and finish over the top. EW EV of +23.2% via Path A (odds $7 >= $6, EW EV >= 5%, place prob 48% >= 30%) confirms the value.
Emballee is the most likely winner (30%) with James McDonald aboard and proven Canterbury form (3 starts, placed last two). However, $2.50 represents a -25% underlay - the market has priced in all positives. No bet at current odds.
KEY RISKS
- Shanoni’s 8th last start at Warwick Farm 1400m (Good) is a concern - may need rain-affected going to perform best (1/2 heavy, 0/3 good)
- Rain forecast could shift track to soft, which would actually benefit Shanoni (but hurt Emballee who is 0/3 soft)
kelly: 1.08% | ev: +$0.23/u | score: 67.0/100