Canterbury R7 | 1250m BM72
Fri 13 Feb | 9:00pm | 9r (1 scr) | Good 4
ACTION
STRONG_VALUE: #1 FINE VINTAGE @ $7.00 - 1.1u EW
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fine Vintage | $7.00 | 62.0 | 18% | +26.0% | STRONG_VALUE | 1.08% |
| 2 | Monte Kate | $4.20 | 52.0 | 22% | -7.6% | VALUE | - |
| 4 | Slinky | $7.50 | 40.0 | 14% | +5.0% | WATCH | 0.19% |
| 5 | Spirit Of Camelot | $3.50 | 35.0 | 20% | -30.0% | WATCH | - |
| 10 | Starboard | $4.50 | 38.0 | 15% | -32.5% | WATCH | - |
| 3 | Silentsar | $20.00 | 38.0 | 8% | +60.0% | WATCH | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Dist | Bias | Conn | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fine Vintage | 4 | $7.00 | 19x52 | BM72 | 2/10 | 0% | Neutral | 62.0 | STRONG_VALUE |
| 2 | Monte Kate | 1 | $4.20 | 5x21x | BM72 | 4/14 | 0% | Neutral | 52.0 | VALUE |
| 3 | Silentsar | 5 | $20.00 | 821x2 | BM72 | 4/22 | 0% | Neutral | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 4 | Slinky | 6 | $7.50 | 31x76 | BM72 | 4/14 | 0% | JMcD | 40.0 | WATCH |
| 5 | Spirit Of Camelot | 10 | $3.50 | 4221x | BM72 | 0/1 | 0% | TClark | 35.0 | WATCH |
| 6 | Super Bright | 7 | $14.00 | 9x566 | BM72 | 3/21 | 0% | Cold | 28.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Ringarosa | 8 | $16.00 | 314x2 | BM72 | 3/16 | 0% | Neutral | 34.0 | WATCH |
| 9 | Orthie’s Boys | 3 | $26.00 | 2154x | BM68 | 1/4 | 0% | Neutral | 22.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Starboard | 2 | $4.50 | 4x593 | BM68 | 2/8 | 0% | Freedman | 38.0 | WATCH |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Fine Vintage has the best recent speed ratings, winning at Canterbury 1100m (64.38s) and placing 2nd over 1250m (72.62s) on the same course recently. Monte Kate’s 73.08s Canterbury 1250m win on Good is the benchmark time for this track/distance.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. Fine Vintage (bar 4) and Monte Kate (bar 1) should settle handy. No genuine leader stands out, suggesting a genuine pace without extremes. On-pacers favoured.
Class: All main contenders have BM72 experience. Spirit Of Camelot steps up from SA provincial racing (BM68/72) to Sydney metro - class query. Fine Vintage consistent at this level (9 wins from 26, 35% strike rate). Orthie’s Boys rising from BM64/68 country level.
Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Good 4 surface should play fair.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Fine Vintage at $7.00 represents strong each-way value. The 6yo gelding won at Canterbury 1100m last start (21 days ago) and placed 2nd over this 1250m course on Jan 1. Career 50% place rate (13 from 26), strong Good track record (4W 7P from 11), and proven at the course (1W from 3). The $7.00 price implies 14.3% win probability against our assessed 18%, delivering +26% edge. EW EV is +23.2% with place probability of 48.2%. Barrier 4 is ideal for Canterbury’s tight circuit.
KEY RISKS
- Last win was at 1100m on Soft - needs to confirm at 1250m on Good 4
- Monte Kate ($4.20) won this course/distance two weeks ago and is the clear form horse - beat Fine Vintage’s stablemate in that race
EACH-WAY VALUES
| # | Horse | Win EV | Place EV | EW EV | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fine Vintage | +26.0% | +20.5% | +23.2% | STRONG EW |
| 3 | Silentsar | +60.0% | +43.2% | +51.6% | STRONG EW* |
| 7 | Ringarosa | +12.0% | +0.2% | +6.1% | EW VALUE |
*Silentsar’s EW value is inflated by high odds but last run (15th) is a major concern.
MARKET NOTES
- Spirit Of Camelot ($3.50 fav) resuming from 293-day spell with two trials. SA form horse stepping to Sydney metro. Wide barrier (10) at Canterbury is a significant disadvantage. Strong oppose at the price.
- Starboard ($4.50) has excellent place consistency (60% career) but rising in class from BM64/68 level. No Canterbury experience. Overbet.
- Monte Kate ($4.20) the logical danger - won here two weeks ago, barrier 1, distance proven (4W from 14). Price about right, no value edge.
kelly: 1.08% | ev: +$0.23/u | score: 62.0/100