Cranbourne R5 | 955m BM78
Fri 13 Feb | 8:15pm | 8r | Good 4
ACTION
NO BET - No value identified. Market favourite Egerton is a clear underlay ($2.35 vs fair $3.57). No runner offers positive expected value on win or each-way.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Fair | Edge | PlcProb | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egerton | $2.35 | 28% | $3.57 | -34.2% | 74.2% | PASS |
| 4 | Symphony Of Colour | $3.80 | 15% | $6.67 | -43.0% | 39.0% | PASS |
| 3 | Supervise | $5.50 | 14% | $7.14 | -23.0% | 41.6% | PASS |
| 2 | Innocent Enuff | $7.00 | 14% | $7.14 | -2.0% | 39.5% | WATCH |
| 9 | Hi Tiago | $8.00 | 10% | $10.00 | -20.0% | 31.1% | PASS |
| 6 | Lake Gillear | $26.00 | 3% | $33.33 | -21.9% | - | PASS |
| 7 | Flip The Switch | $27.00 | 3% | $33.33 | -18.9% | - | PASS |
| 8 | Frose | $35.00 | 3% | $33.33 | +5.0% | - | PASS |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | SpFig | Pace | Class | Bias | Conn | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egerton | 9 | $2.35 | 88 | OK | 82 | -2% | Neutral | PASS |
| 2 | Innocent Enuff | 3 | $7.00 | 82 | GOOD | 76 | 0% | Neutral | WATCH |
| 3 | Supervise | 4 | $5.50 | 80 | OK | 70 | 0% | Neutral | PASS |
| 4 | Symphony Of Colour | 8 | $3.80 | 83 | OK | 76 | -1% | Hot | PASS |
| 6 | Lake Gillear | 6 | $26.00 | 65 | OK | 60 | 0% | Neutral | PASS |
| 7 | Flip The Switch | 1 | $27.00 | 72 | GOOD | 70 | +2% | Neutral | PASS |
| 8 | Frose | 7 | $35.00 | 68 | OK | 68 | 0% | Neutral | PASS |
| 9 | Hi Tiago | 5 | $8.00 | 70 | GOOD | 68 | 0% | Neutral | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Egerton has the best figures (88) from BM66 Flemington win and BM64 Caulfield 2nd, 5pts clear of Symphony Of Colour (83) and Innocent Enuff (82). However, those runs were at 1000-1100m, not the sharp 955m at Cranbourne.
Pace: MODERATE tempo expected with no confirmed leader. Flip The Switch (bar 1) and Hi Tiago (bar 5) have shown early speed. Innocent Enuff draws well (bar 3) to sit handy. Egerton from wide (bar 9) will need to use energy to find position over the short trip.
Class: Egerton has the highest-class form (BM66 Flemington, BM64 Caulfield) but rising to BM78 for the first time. Supervise (206 days off) and Hi Tiago (BM56 last) face significant class rises. Innocent Enuff has been placed at BM70 level.
Bias: Track bias confidence LOW. Rail position unknown. Neutral bias assumed. Inside barrier advantage at 955m Cranbourne is historically moderate.
PLACE SPECIALIST ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Place Rate | Expected | Score | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hi Tiago | 71.4% | 24.0% | 2.98 | STRONG SPECIALIST |
| 3 | Supervise | 80.0% | 33.6% | 2.38 | STRONG SPECIALIST |
| 2 | Innocent Enuff | 59.0% | 33.6% | 1.76 | STRONG SPECIALIST |
| 1 | Egerton | 70.0% | 67.2% | 1.04 | NORMAL |
Despite strong place specialist scores, place odds don’t offer value at current prices.
KEY RISKS
- Egerton (fav): Wide barrier 9 at sharp 955m, last 3 form reads 4-x-4 before the win, first time at BM78
- Supervise: 206 days between races is a major fitness concern despite talent
- Market efficiency: 124.2% overround compresses all value; no edge available
CLOSEST TO VALUE
Innocent Enuff (#2, $7.00) is the closest to fair value (edge -2.0%, confidence interval crosses zero at +7.8%). Strong place specialist (1.76) with 59% career place rate from 39 starts. Inside barrier helps at Cranbourne 955m. If you must bet, this is the only runner worth watching for a drift to $8+.
no selection | ev: nil | market: 124.2% overround