Cranbourne R6 | 1400m BM70

Fri 13 Feb | 8:45pm | 9r (5 scr) | Good 4 | Rain

ACTION

STRONG_VALUE: #3 BONS TO RICHES @ $7.50 - 1.35u EW VALUE: #10 WARRIOR WITHIN @ $21.00 - 0.85u EW

EDGE TABLE

#	Horse	Odds	Win%	Edge	Place%	Tier	Kelly
8	Conchiero	$2.70	28%	-24.4%	76.0%	WATCH	-
3	Bons To Riches	$7.50	18%	+35.0%	51.5%	STRONG_VALUE	1.35%
5	Princess Que	$4.50	15%	-32.5%	45.1%	PASS	-
9	Hot Digity Boom	$4.60	12%	-44.8%	35.2%	PASS	-
10	Warrior Within	$21.00	8%	+68.0%	29.2%	VALUE	0.85%
1	Le Ferrari	$11.00	7%	-23.0%	-	PASS	-
6	Sir Atlas	$11.00	5%	-45.0%	-	PASS	-
4	Montjeuify	$61.00	4%	-	-	PASS	-
2	Pascero	$20.00	3%	-	-	PASS	-

FIELD ANALYSIS

#	Horse	Bar	Odds	Form	Class	Dist	Pace	Tier
8	Conchiero	3	$2.70	1-1-8-x-2	BM70 (level)	1/2 at dist	OK	WATCH
3	Bons To Riches	1	$7.50	4-x-1-4-1-1	BM66->70 (rise)	1/1 at dist	GOOD	STRONG_VALUE
5	Princess Que	5	$4.50	1-1-2-7-7-2	BM74->70 (drop)	0/0 at dist	OK	PASS
9	Hot Digity Boom	2	$4.60	2-2-x-4-4-3	BM66->70 (rise)	0/4 at dist	OK	PASS
10	Warrior Within	14	$21.00	4-7-x-1-1-1	BM66->70 (rise)	1/2 at dist	OK	VALUE
1	Le Ferrari	7	$11.00	5-5-3-7-2-7	BM70 (level)	5/25 at dist	OK	PASS
6	Sir Atlas	9	$11.00	6-x-3-6-5-x	BM70 (level)	1/5 at dist	POOR	PASS
4	Montjeuify	10	$61.00	3-6-x-7-1-8	BM70 (level)	2/15 at dist	POOR	PASS
2	Pascero	6	$20.00	5-x-4-8	BM78->70 (drop)	5/28 at dist	POOR	PASS

ANALYSIS

Speed: Conchiero has the benchmark figure (83.02s Caulfield BM70), but Bons To Riches clocked 83.76s winning BM66 at Pakenham and 77.63s winning 1300m at Cranbourne - faster on par adjustment. Hot Digity Boom’s 82.2s at Flemington BM74 is the raw best but beaten 0.75L.

Pace: MODERATE tempo expected. No clear leader in the field - Warrior Within and Conchiero likely to settle on pace. Suits on-pacers and stalkers. Bons To Riches from barrier 1 can get a lovely run in transit.

Class: Three runners rising from BM66 (Bons To Riches, Hot Digity Boom, Warrior Within). Bons To Riches has the strongest trajectory - 3 wins from last 5 including BM56->BM62->BM66 progression. Princess Que dropping from BM74 but untested at 1400m.

Bias: Neutral bias (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. No strong style or barrier bias detected at Cranbourne tonight.

SELECTION RATIONALE

#3 Bons To Riches is the standout value play at $7.50. Three wins from last five starts shows a horse in superb form on an upward class trajectory. Michael Dee rides and barrier 1 ensures an economical run - critical in a 9-runner field where inside runners get the shortest path. Course specialist (2 wins from 3 at Cranbourne) with a perfect 1/1 record at 1400m. The +35% edge with strong EW value (+35.1% EW EV) and a place specialist score of 1.93 make this the clear play. The class rise from BM66 to BM70 is the only concern but the form trajectory supports it.

#10 Warrior Within at $21 offers speculative EW value. Three wins from six career starts with C&D form (won BM66 at Cranbourne 1400m last start in 83.68s). The huge class rise from BM66 and widest barrier (14) are significant negatives, but perfect place consistency (100%) at short career underpins the each-way case. Place specialist score of 5.21.

KEY RISKS

Bons To Riches: First start at BM70 - class rise may find horse out. Only 1 start at 1400m despite winning it.
Conchiero: Heavy favourite at $2.70 with Gai Waterhouse/Bott. If the stable has this horse ready 2nd-up after a strong Caulfield 2nd, he could dominate. Our model says UNDERLAY but the market respects this horse.
Rain: Weather is rain - track may deteriorate. Princess Que (4 wins/4 places from 4 soft) and Le Ferrari have better wet form than Bons To Riches if track shifts.

EW DETAIL

Horse	Path	Win EV	Place EV	EW EV	Place Spec
Bons To Riches	A	+35.0%	+35.2%	+35.1%	1.93
Warrior Within	B	+68.0%	+75.2%	+71.6%	5.21