Cranbourne R7 | 1400m BM66
Fri 13 Feb | 9:15pm | 10r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
EW VALUE: #1 NOSTRO ROCCIA @ $6.50 - 1.0u EW
Path A qualified: Odds $6.50 >= $6, EW EV +6.5%, Place prob 46% >= 30%
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Score | Win% | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rock Them Jools | $2.60 | 46.8 | 31% | -19.4% | VALUE | - |
| 1 | Nostro Roccia | $6.50 | 60.7 | 16% | +4.0% | VALUE | 0.68% |
| 3 | Topmost | $5.00 | 47.6 | 15% | -25.0% | WATCH | - |
| 7 | Florina Region | $4.80 | 38.0 | 14% | -32.8% | WATCH | - |
| 5 | Ryanman | $8.00 | 38.4 | 10% | -20.0% | WATCH | - |
| 8 | Swift Power | $18.00 | 28.0 | 6% | +8.0% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Bias | Conn | Pace | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nostro Roccia | 10 | $6.50 | 44x31 | MDN>BM66 | 0% | Neutral | OK | 60.7 | VALUE |
| 2 | Rock Them Jools | 7 | $2.60 | 4x31x6 | CL1>BM66 | 0% | Hot | OK | 46.8 | VALUE |
| 3 | Topmost | 8 | $5.00 | 35x231 | MDN>BM66 | 0% | Neutral | OK | 47.6 | WATCH |
| 4 | Launceston | 9 | $19.00 | 189x65 | BM64 | 0% | Cold | POOR | 20.0 | PASS |
| 5 | Ryanman | 2 | $8.00 | 1285x3 | BM58>BM66 | 0% | Neutral | OK | 38.4 | WATCH |
| 6 | Surperb Frost | 4 | $20.00 | x5451x | MDN>BM66 | 0% | Cold | OK | 22.0 | PASS |
| 7 | Florina Region | 3 | $4.80 | 4219x | BM62>BM66 | 0% | Hot | OK | 38.0 | WATCH |
| 8 | Swift Power | 5 | $18.00 | 19x327 | BM56>BM66 | 0% | Cold | OK | 28.0 | PASS |
| 9 | Peintre’s Pride | 1 | $151.00 | 57884 | BM52>BM66 | 0% | Cold | POOR | 8.0 | PASS |
| 10 | Gijima Gal | 6 | $201.00 | 87989 | CL1>BM66 | 0% | Cold | POOR | 5.0 | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: Nostro Roccia (84.72s/1400m) and Topmost (84.24s/1400m) posted the best Cranbourne 1400m times; Rock Them Jools rated on 1300m Sandown form (77.65s). Pace: MODERATE tempo expected - no obvious leader, Florina Region and Rock Them Jools likely sit midfield, suits on-pace types. Class: All top contenders rising from maiden/lower grades to BM66. Rock Them Jools has prior BM66 experience (6th Bendigo). Nostro Roccia and Topmost are first-up at this level after maiden wins. Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position unspecified. Neutral assessment applied.
PLACE SPECIALIST NOTE
#3 Topmost: Career 10 starts for 1 win and 9 places (90% place rate). Place specialist score 2.50 (STRONG). However, at $5.00 the EW EV is -16.5% - no value in the odds. The place consistency is already priced in by the market.
#5 Ryanman: Place specialist score 2.08 via Path B ($8+ odds, specialist >= 1.3). Marginal EW value only - not enough edge to recommend.
SELECTION RATIONALE
Nostro Roccia represents the best value in this race at $6.50 each-way. Won his maiden impressively at this track and distance (Cranbourne 1400m) by 0.75L three weeks ago. The Busuttin/Young stable has him fit and the Damian Lane-ridden favorite Rock Them Jools ($2.60) looks short given his 4th at Sandown last start at only CL1 level. Nostro Roccia’s place probability of 46% combined with his $6.50 odds delivers +6.5% EW expected value via Path A qualification. The wide barrier (10) in a 10-horse field is the key concern.
KEY RISKS
- Wide barrier (10) - must use energy early or settle back, tactical disadvantage
- First run at BM66 after maiden win - class test is genuine, untested at this level
- Rain forecast - all good track form, heavy track record 0/1 for Nostro Roccia
ew_ev: +6.5% | place_prob: 46% | score: 60.7/100 | path: A (Value Overlay)