Sunshine Coast R2 | 1800m BM68
Fri 13 Feb | 7:08pm | 3r (6 scratched) | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - 3-horse field, all runners UNDERLAY at current prices
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Fair | Edge | Tier | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | La Rosetta | $1.85 | 48% | $2.08 | -11.2% | PASS | - |
| 5 | Family Of League | $2.60 | 33% | $3.03 | -14.2% | PASS | - |
| 6 | Savvy Bee | $4.20 | 19% | $5.26 | -20.2% | PASS | - |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | C/D | Going | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | La Rosetta | 3 | $1.85 | 54911 | Rise BM65>68 | 1/1 SC | 1/6 Good | PASS |
| 5 | Family Of League | 5 | $2.60 | 4x254 | Rise CL3>BM68 | 1/5 SC | 0/9 Good | PASS |
| 6 | Savvy Bee | 8 | $4.20 | 25231 | Rise BM65>68 | 1/3 SC | 1/21 Good | PASS |
ANALYSIS
Speed: La Rosetta has the best recent time (95.30s/1600m at Eagle Farm BM70), marginally ahead of Family Of League (96.12s/1600m CL3) and Savvy Bee (88.82s/1500m BM65 at Rockhampton). La Rosetta’s dominant 2.9L win at this track on Soft is the standout run.
Pace: SLOW anticipated - 3-horse field with no genuine leader. Family Of League and Savvy Bee are both mid-race runners; La Rosetta has shown tactical speed. Likely a slow crawl with a sprint home, suits the on-pace runner.
Class: All three rising slightly in class. La Rosetta won BM65 here by 2.9L (most impressive), ran 8th of 13 in BM70 at Eagle Farm last start. Family Of League 2nd in CL3 last start (beaten 0.18L in a 6-horse field). Savvy Bee 3rd in BM65 at Rockhampton (beaten 3.6L).
Bias: No significant track bias detected (LOW confidence). Rail position not specified. Rain forecast could shift conditions to Soft during the meeting.
RUNNER PROFILES
#3 LA ROSETTA ($1.85) - Toby Edmonds / Bella Youngberry 4yo mare, 12 starts 3-1-3. Won here at SC over 1600m by 2.9L on Soft (09/01/26). Last start 8th/13 at Eagle Farm BM70 (beaten 0.31L in a bunched finish - better than it looks). First try at 1800m is the question mark. Good record on Soft (2/6) but only 1/6 on Good surfaces. Course winner. Deserved favourite but $1.85 is too short given untried at the distance and Good track record.
#5 FAMILY OF LEAGUE ($2.60) - Paul Jenkins / Montana Philpot 4yo mare, 14 starts 2-5-2. Excellent place record (50%). Last start 2nd at SC 1600m CL3 (beaten 0.18L). Has run at 1800m twice (4th twice, both beaten <0.5L at Gold Coast). 5 course starts with 1 win. Wins on Soft (2/4) but winless from 9 Good track starts is concerning. Main danger but $2.60 doesn’t offer value.
#6 SAVVY BEE ($4.20) - Mark Currie / Cody Collis 6yo mare, 29 starts 2-7-8. Outstanding place consistency (59%). Won at SC 1600m on Soft (09/01/26). Last start 3rd at Rockhampton BM65 (beaten 3.6L - weakest recent effort). Stepping up to 1800m for the first time (untried). Wide barrier (8 of 8 drawn) irrelevant in 3-horse field. At $4.20 in a 3-horse race she’s the worst value of the three.
SELECTION RATIONALE
No bet recommended. This is a 3-horse field after 6 scratchings, creating a compressed market where the bookmaker margin ensures no overlay exists. La Rosetta is the most likely winner on form (dominant SC win, Edmonds stable, class rise justified) but $1.85 implies 54% when true probability is closer to 48%. All three are untried at 1800m, adding uncertainty. Rain could shift conditions to Soft which would benefit La Rosetta and Family Of League over Savvy Bee, but doesn’t create enough edge at these prices.
KEY RISKS
- Tiny field (3 runners) - compressed odds, no value available
- All three untried/limited at 1800m distance
- Rain forecast may shift track to Soft mid-meeting
no selection | all underlays | 3-horse field pass