Sunshine Coast R3 | 1000m BM68
Fri 13 Feb | 7:38pm | 8r | Good 4 | Rain
ACTION
NO BET - No runner presents sufficient edge at current market prices. #5 Bonfire Spark is significantly overbet at $2.80 (fair odds $5.56). #3 Admitted is the quality runner but $4.20 offers no overlay.
EDGE TABLE
| # | Horse | Odds | Win% | Edge | Fair | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Admitted | $4.20 | 22% | -7.6% | $4.55 | UNDERLAY |
| 5 | Bonfire Spark | $2.80 | 18% | -49.6% | $5.56 | UNDERLAY |
| 2 | Super Daisy | $9.00 | 12% | +8.0% | $8.33 | MARGINAL |
| 8 | Milestone | $9.00 | 11% | -1.0% | $9.09 | FAIR |
| 9 | Crown Guinea | $10.00 | 10% | 0.0% | $10.00 | FAIR |
| 4 | Limero | $6.50 | 10% | -35.0% | $10.00 | UNDERLAY |
| 6 | A Lot Of Booty | $11.00 | 9% | -1.0% | $11.11 | FAIR |
| 7 | Territory Ash | $10.00 | 8% | -20.0% | $12.50 | UNDERLAY |
FIELD ANALYSIS
| # | Horse | Bar | Odds | Form | Class | Pace | Plc% | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Admitted | 7 | $4.20 | 2-6-3 | Rise | OK | 50% | 52 | VALUE |
| 5 | Bonfire Spark | 4 | $2.80 | 6-8-7 | Rise | OK | 41% | 38 | WATCH |
| 2 | Super Daisy | 1 | $9.00 | x-7-6 | Lat | GOOD | 39% | 40 | WATCH |
| 4 | Limero | 2 | $6.50 | 2-7-2 | Lat | GOOD | 54% | 35 | WATCH |
| 8 | Milestone | 9 | $9.00 | x-9-x | Rise | POOR | 40% | 33 | WATCH |
| 9 | Crown Guinea | 3 | $10.00 | 4-4-3 | Rise | OK | 39% | 34 | WATCH |
| 6 | A Lot Of Booty | 5 | $11.00 | x-7-5 | Lat | OK | 55% | 30 | WATCH |
| 7 | Territory Ash | 6 | $10.00 | 5-7-x | Rise | POOR | 19% | 22 | PASS |
PLACE SPECIALISTS
| # | Horse | Plc Rate | Expected | Specialist Score | EW Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | A Lot Of Booty | 55% | 22% | 2.55 (STRONG) | -3.1% EW EV |
| 4 | Limero | 54% | 24% | 2.25 (STRONG) | -32.6% EW EV |
Both are strong place specialists but neither offers EW value at current prices.
ANALYSIS
Speed: #3 Admitted has the best competitive 1000m time (57.34s at SC Good in BM70), though from a small field. #2 Super Daisy has track speed (ran in 57.28s BM78 race) but finished last. Raw times are compressed across the field - no standout figure.
Pace: MODERATE scenario expected. No confirmed on-pace runner. #3 Admitted and #4 Limero likely to sit midfield. #5 Bonfire Spark’s pattern unknown at this trip after a long break. Inside draws (#2, #4) advantaged in an 8-runner field at 1000m.
Class: #3 Admitted showed ability at BM70 level (3rd) and won trials impressively (by 5.23L). Stepping to BM68 is appropriate. #5 Bonfire Spark rising from CL1/BM58 level with only a trial win to suggest readiness - significant class test. #2 Super Daisy has BM78 experience but has been well beaten in 6 consecutive race starts.
Bias: Neutral (LOW confidence). No rail position data. Good 4 track with rain forecast could deteriorate - monitor.
SELECTION RATIONALE
#3 Admitted is the quality runner with best recent competitive form (2nd, 3rd at BM68-70 level), strong trial performances, and is improving at 4yo. However, the market has priced this correctly at $4.20 with fair odds calculated at $4.55 - insufficient overlay for a bet. #5 Bonfire Spark is a false favourite at $2.80 with form figures of 6-8-7-7 in races and only a trial win (small field at Beaudesert) to recommend. The market is over-reading the trial performance and trainer intent.
KEY RISKS
- Rain could change track condition significantly - all assessments based on Good 4
- #5 Bonfire Spark could improve sharply first-up for new campaign despite poor race form - trial win was impressive (2.84L)
- Thin race with no clear standout - vulnerable to any runner producing a career-best
MARKET NOTES
- Market overpercentage: 126.2% (typical for provincial)
- #5 Bonfire Spark absorbing 35.7% of implied probability at $2.80 - looks too short
- Value gap: If #3 Admitted drifts to $5.00+ or #2 Super Daisy firms below $8.00, reassess
no bet | best rated: #3 Admitted 52/100 | market: no overlay detected